While other candidates for the state’s top office, such as state Rep. John Bel Edwards,
Lt. Gov. Jay
Dardenne, and now the latest Treasurer John Kennedy,
have
admitted
if not volunteered
interest in the job, and Sen. David
Vitter allows speculation
of his interest in it to run rampant, Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, as Hanna
demonstrates by his piece, gets mentioned as a possibility but never himself addresses
the subject. As a candidate who has won as both a Democrat and Republican from
the local to state level, Angelle has shown broad electable appeal and
has done little on the issues to disqualify him from getting conservative
support in a right-of-center state.
The coy Vitter would be the favorite were he to announce, given his
strong conservative support among both the principled and populist winds of the
party that would eat at the populist’s Kennedy’s support, that has led no other
principled conservative to contest to this point, and would leave too little
left over for the moderate conservative Dardenne with the liberal Edwards in
the race. Angelle could take support further from Dardenne but he also could
gather principled conservative support that otherwise would coalesce around Vitter.
Whether it would be enough to win is another matter, and Hanna broaches
that instead Angelle could challenge Sen. Mary
Landrieu, who has made a political career of appearing as a liberal wolf ina moderate sheep’s clothing. Dardenne already has ruled out a Senate run,
Kennedy lost to Landrieu in 2008, Edwards would not challenge his incumbent
fellow Democrat, and Vitter’s already got that job. Perhaps best of all of them
Angelle could make nominal conservatives forget Landrieu’s blandishments, Hanna
argues, and provide the GOP’s best hope at getting sweeping every statewide
elective office
But the problem is that for the Senate it’s late in the game given
resources needed, with qualifying for office barely a year away, and
already has emerged in it a high-profile Republican challenger with significant
commitments, Rep. Bill Cassidy.
Landrieu has signaled she will beat the bushes for more money than ever to keep
secure her precarious perch, while at this point Cassidy is well ahead of
Kennedy and other past GOP contenders in his own fundraising and shows of
support. Angelle, just having secured his present office just months ago, with just
over $100,000 left in the coffers at the end of last year, would be at a
distinct disadvantage in what should be a monetary record-shattering, and then
some, contest.
However, where Angelle could slot in perfectly is to take Cassidy’s
place in a contest where he might become the instant favorite in, it having
drawn to this point political unknowns. Other elected officials such as a recent
party-switching legislator might be interested, but the sense is Angelle
starts off with more name recognition and activist support, including potentially
extensive resources with a likely backing by Gov. Bobby
Jindal, who for Senate already
has reason not to oppose Cassidy.
Naturally, it’s tricky in getting right the timing. If Angelle doesn’t
run for Senate, he perhaps gives up a victory there, but if he does and loses,
despite the name recognition gain he might have depleted his resources enough to
let a potential win slip away for governor. And that obviously leaves him out
of a potentially more winnable House race. Yet if he deferred on the federal
contests to save it all for the governor’s race, that still might give up his
best shot of shots for advancement from the PSC. And there are other
permutations still; if Dardenne and/or Kennedy do run for governor, he would be
a formidable candidate to replace either of them, but would these lackluster
offices be enough for him
In political handicapping, there’s much to be said for going with a
bird in the hand than hoping to get two in the bush. Cassidy’s House spot is
more immediate and takes path of least resistance at this time. An expected win
could set him up for a gubernatorial run in five or nine years (voters might
not look kindly on a run a year later, which signals too much ambition); he’d
only be 60 if the latter. Or depending on the vagaries of politics surrounding
Jindal, he might find himself promoted in 2016 to senator should Vitter run for
and win the year previous the right to occupy the Governor’s Mansion, giving
him a leg up to win the subsequent special election at the end of the year. A
surprising loss and he still could rally in time, if available, for the less
important offices vacated by Dardenne and/or Kennedy, and also get settled in
for pursuing progressive ambition in the years ahead (this loss would
disqualify him from a gubernatorial run as potential supporters would be
discouraged by that showing for the far more consequential post).
1 comment:
Isn't there some sort of law against using the word "principled" as an adjective to describe David Vitter in ANY context.
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