Last month, a poll
came to attention perhaps more because of Dardenne’s place in it than anything
else. In part, it asked public opinion on hypothetical 2014 Senate matchups
featuring Sen. Mary
Landrieu. The Democrat widely is considered, if not the most vulnerable,
one of the most vulnerable senators to lose her seat in the upcoming election.
Although Dardenne’s name
never had been mentioned as a Senate candidate – the most cited names have been
Reps. Bill Cassidy
and John Fleming, former Rep.
Jeff Landry, and recently inserting himself into the discussion, Board of
Elementary and Secondary Education Chairman Chas Roemer – it was included
against Landrieu, and he polled the best. State media outlets made
inquiries, and then a national opinion magazine did a whole story
on the possibility of Dardenne running. The perspicacious The Hayride also weighed
in.
Dardenne always has been
considered by conservatives somewhat suspiciously, even though he cast more
conservative than liberal votes as a state senator and then consistently called
for more efficient state spending at lower levels. This is because in
governance he always has preferred to get along and go along, even if it meant,
for example, acquiescing to tax increases such as with the “Stelly Plan”
thereby abandoning conservative principles when it seemed convenient.
But neither has he endeared
himself to the considerable populist conservative strain that exists in the
state because is he not a populist, unlike 2008 Senate candidate state Treas. John
Kennedy, which provides cover when abandoning conservative principles. So,
despite a voting record on the whole conservative in the state Senate, neither
principled nor populist conservatives consider him among their top choices for
any office, if not their last option among Republicans.
Yet if the goal is to keep
conservative Republicans in meaningful office (which, as lieutenant governor,
given the almost nonexistent powers of the office, Dardenne currently does not
occupy), even a mild conservative such as Dardenne might be the best fit for
the Senate. At a practical level, Dardenne did have the best matchup against
Landrieu. While the sampling frame of the poll overstated support for Landrieu,
that does not matter in a comparison of Dardenne to other challengers listed,
Cassidy and Fleming, at this time maximizing the party’s chances of sending her
intro retirement.
A Dardenne candidacy also
solves the problem of sacrificing an existing House member (if, as GOP elites
hope, support coalesces early around one candidate as a de facto nominee), in the case of these two, to move on up to the
Senate. The two districts involved, while to the advantage of Republicans, are the
two among the state’s least in that quality except for the heavily-Democratic Second,
held by a Democrat. In 2008, special circumstances in both
cases
arguably allowed both to win. And while 2014 does not appear likely to produce
as unfavorable an environment as 2008 for Republican candidates, one never
knows.
Finally, Dardenne may
consider leaving his spot prematurely because it looks like he’ll have a tough
fight on his hands regardless in 2015. The gubernatorial
field looks crowded with Kennedy almost certain to run representing the
populist conservative wing, Agriculture Commissioner Mike
Strain also giving it serious thought who could capture principled
conservatives’ votes, and Sen. David Vitter, who has the
greatest advantage of all by his ability to move between both the principled
and populist conservatives and rally both, who refuses to dispel speculation
that he is running. Throw
in there state Rep. John Bel Edwards,
a darling of liberal Democrats, and it might be tough for Dardenne to squeeze
in to the left of Kennedy, Strain, and Vitter and to the right of Edwards.
He could take a pass and try
to retain his current job, but that won’t be easy, either. His main opponent
from last election, Plaquemines Parish Pres. Billy Nungesser, has indicated
he will try again for the office and was competitive. Dardenne might
consider a 2014 run as a way of having a longer campaign for his current job if
he fails in the Senate attempt (and he has to raise money separately for them
anyway, so why not just start early statewide campaigning, but for the Senate
instead of the lieutenant governor’s position?).
With pursuit of the
Governor’s Mansion potentially tricky and potential competitive opposition for
his present position, Dardenne might think he should hedge his bets and feel his
electability and keeping other representatives in their spots arguments could
win the day among Republican elites and have them close ranks around him to run
for the Senate. And this would be a freebie for him, where his current office
would not be at risk, but where this campaigning could enhance his ability to
keep that office or move up to governor a year later.
In addition, this likely is
a one-time only offer. If he passes on it now and Vitter passes next year for
governor, a Senate slot likely will not open for the rest of Dardenne’s
political life. Even if Vitter does have a go at the governor’s office and wins,
in 2016 an appointed incumbent Republican will stand in Dardenne’s way (rumor
has it that this could be Kennedy) and his major trump card, electability, will
have been wasted because that presumed superior electability exists only
against the Democrat incumbent Landrieu. He even has a fallback position if
Cassidy ran in 2014 with him and Cassidy defeats him: run for Cassidy’s open
House seat while he continues win or lose as lieutenant governor.
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