In a sign that perhaps Sen. David Vitter has come to an affirmative decision that he’ll make a gubernatorial run in 2015, Agriculture Secretary Mike Strain announced he would seek reelection to that post.
Strain posted
through social media the decision, significant because he was the only
prominent principled or traditional conservative candidate putatively in the
contest. Others at the state level who have announced interest in the job to
succeed term-limited Gov. Bobby
Jindal represent different political bases – Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne
seems positioned to appeal to moderates on the right and independents, Treasurer
John
Kennedy for years has spouted issue preferences that appeal to populist
conservatives, and state Rep. John Bel Edwards
reliably parrots lines that liberal Democrats love.
As far as this group went, Strain could find room to try to capture
that constituency with the only potential competition from state Sen. Gerald Long, who also
expressed some interest. But Long raised hardly any money in 2012 although
he retains almost $300,000 in the bank. Strain did much better, raising over
$200,000 and left with nearly $400,000 in the same time period, so it seems
highly unlikely that Long, if the distant kinsman of two past governors even
still contemplates making the race (at one time saying a crucial factor in
deciding to go for it was his ability to raise money), chased him out of it.
While Strain hints that prosaic reasons – consultations with family and
friends – influenced him to turn down the chance, just as if not more likely it’s
perhaps that word is trickling to him about Vitter’s interest in the job, from
operatives and potential donors. Vitter has demonstrated the greatest ability
to unite
the principled and populist wings of Louisiana conservatives, so other
possible competitors have every reason to abandon their plans if they become certain
he’ll formally enter the fray.
And signs continue to emerge suggesting he will. In May he announced
a fundraiser for a political action committee that seems poised to be able
to contribute to a campaign of his either at the federal or state level. If he
were to run, this would be the way to get money committed now for the effort,
because state law (R.S.
18:1505.2(P)) requires that he open a separate account for any state office
campaign as candidates are prohibited from commingling funds raised for federal
office pursuit. If he wished not to announce intentions this far out, which
would require establishment of a separate account, for strategic reasons but retain
the ability to raise money and especially in a format that could go either way –
for if he had no interest in the job he simply could raise the money through
his own federal account – this works.
Strain’s deferral suggests a realization that principled conservative
support largely seems headed Vitter’s way to prompt his desisting. The question
becomes whether Dardenne or Kennedy become too pessimistic about their chances
and instead fall back to their current jobs. Kennedy possibly may if he
perceives a Vitter formal entrance as eminent, because Vitter can peel off a
portion of Kennedy’s populist base, but Dardenne seems in it to stay, his spot already
having drawn a (repeat) challenger and with more room to try to maneuver,
unless a moderate Democrat (if one can be found) emerges that would squeeze him
out. (Perhaps the likes of state Rep. Walt Leger, who
has one of the least liberal yet not conservative voting records in the Legislature
of Democrats and who has positioned
himself on running for statewide office, might qualify on this account.)
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