Latest request dispels myth of LA higher education doom

Observers and participants got an early view of a big part of the fiscal 2015 budget to be proposed by Gov. Bobby Jindal tomorrow when earlier this week he laid out plans for higher education. If what is expected comes to fruition, what passes in the legislatively-approved budget will end an exceptionally misunderstood budgetary era regarding funding this state government function leaving Louisiana with a different, and healthier, system of higher education going forward.

Jindal announced that not only does he want to boost higher education with an additional $14 million in state general fund money, the first boost in half a decade, but he also wants schools to take advantage of tuition increases that are projected to draw an additional $88 million and be able to tap into a $40 million fund that rewards on the basis of program expansion in areas of study identified as high need. It continues a pattern over his terms in office of reshaping higher education delivery based upon results largely shaped by his budgetary choices ratified by the Legislature.

A mythology, largely driven by disgruntled higher education employees and Jindal critics, formed over his years in office asserting that in this time period higher education suffered nothing less than catastrophe. They point to the $2.814 billion budget, just about half of which was funded directly by state government in the last budget before Jindal’s arrival, as compared to the current fiscal year’s budget that contains only about $525 million in that general fund financing, feeding the narrative of cataclysm.

Favorite Vitter's entry defines LA's 2015 governor's race

What observers were 99.44 percent sure about became 100 percent yesterday when Sen. David Vitter announced he would run for Louisiana governor in 2015. He immediately becomes the favorite and his decision and a potential win as a result dramatically alter the state’s political landscape.

Not really for Democrats, with one exception. This should discourage New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu from running for governor (assuming he wins reelection this spring where he is the favorite; a defeat most likely snuffs any thought of statewide office). Vitter’s strength comes from his ability, unparalleled among current state Republicans, to unite both traditional, principled conservatives and populist conservatives. Perhaps the most populist-oriented state in the country, and certainly the most in the South given its political culture and history, as a consequence there is a significant Republican component among populists as well as with Democrats, which in most places is their natural home. Not only can Vitter grab a good share of the former, he also can pick off some of the latter, shielding them from Landrieu or the only announced Democrat in the contest, state Rep. John Bel Edwards. Landrieu can hope for victory only if he can corral a good portion of white populists, the chances of which diminished considerably with Vitter’s entrance. Landrieu is more likely to consider substituting for his sister Mary should she lose to Rep. Bill Cassidy in her reelection bid in 2014 should Vitter win in 2015 in the 2016 contest to succeed Vitter.

Also discouraging his entrance should be the presence of state Treas. John Kennedy, the only real competitor Vitter has for conservative populists. While many consider that Vitter now removes Kennedy’s oxygen from the race, Kennedy’s recent announcement validating fundraising prowess may indicate he eventually will run regardless of Vitter. This certainly dampens Kennedy’s chances should he enter, but should he this creates even more competition for the populist vote. Meanwhile, at this point Vitter had a clear path to collecting the large majority of the principled conservative vote – despite the fact that this vote largely allies itself with Gov. Bobby Jindal, who does not hang with Vitter.

Paring of LA congressional request best for U.S. interests

While most observers could heave a sigh of relief at the federal budget deal passed into law last week, some felt disappointed at the failure to retain in it a special line item relevant to northeast Louisiana. Such feeling is misplaced.

Last summer, Sen. Mary Landrieu in the Senate version of what would gravitate into an omnibus appropriations bill got inserted a provision that would allocate $700,000 directly to the World Heritage Centre. That represented about one percent of dues owed in arrears for the past year to the organization’s parent, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, representing that portion for operating the WHC.

Despite being the chief architect of UNESCO, the U.S. has had a contentious history with the organization. In 1984, it withdrew as the organization, run by a 21-member board, increasingly promoted an anti-open society, anti-free enterprise agenda while tolerating administrative waste and aggrandizement. Internal governance changes led to the U.S. rejoining it in 2003, but in the interim laws had been passed that forbade the U.S. to contribute money to organizations that recognized as a full member, connoting that it is a state, what today is the Palestinian Authority.

Nevers hopes legislator, public stupidity passes expansion

State Sen. Ben Nevers apparently needs some extra exercise, so he decided to flog the dead horse called Medicaid expansion. But he does so on the usual mistaken beliefs of its supporters and on the erroneous thinking that the voting public as a whole is actually dumber than state legislators.

That latter group would have to be pretty dumb to support the idea. The state has the choice to include individuals at 25-100 (or perhaps up to 138) percent of the poverty line in Medicaid because the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) to stay consistent with the Constitution cannot compel states to do this. The most reliable study done on the matter, by the state’s Department of Health and Hospitals last year, indicates rejection is the most cost-effective policy, showing that within a decade the state will pay out $92.5 million more a year than without it, by then the extra payout increasing by 15 percent a year and only going higher.

No expansion also will provide the best medical outcomes. Recently, a study in Oregon demonstrated that the worst outcomes were recorded by those utilizing Medicaid services, compared to those with private insurance and no insurance at all. Both that and why the current method of serving the uninsured through uncompensated care reimbursements saves money compared to expansion are explained by a fact of which Nevers either is unaware or won’t admit in order to advance his agenda.

Maness flubs continue to prevent taking him seriously

How you don’t run for public office: Part I, starring Rob Maness (Part II might be here).

When asked about his view on allowing exceptions to having flood rates match risk, Maness said he was against that before being for it. Recently, the law changed that was designed to reduce, if not eliminate, subsidization of rates that kept them artificially low. The problem, from the perspective of a Louisiana federal officeholder, is that Louisianans disproportionately benefitted from the program, even as it allowed for some taxpayers to subsidize others, including many families of middle class and higher lifestyles and income.

Both incumbent Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu and her main challenger Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy voted for the legislation. Landrieu said she did under protest because it was attached to other legislation that enabled money to be spent on recovery from the oil well blowout disaster of 2010. Cassidy also saw that part of the bill as salutary, and wanted to put the flood insurance program on solid footing and available, which it would have lapsed without passage. It has run a deficit, particularly aggravated by the Louisiana hurricane disasters of 2005 and the New Jersey hurricane disaster of 2012, in part because the rates badly underpriced risk for many holders of these policies. Both have offered legislation that would delay implementation of what they voted for, and in the fiscal year 2014 budget that last week both voted for it contains a provision that delays until 2015 these rate increases regarding some policyholders.

Amnesty not substitute for better LA fiscal practices

Courtesy of the Revenue Estimating Conference, the good news is, for the first time since the tapering of the Katrina economic bonus and the infliction of Pres. Barack Obama’s economic transformation onto America, Louisiana will have no significant mid-year budget cuts to suffer. The bad news is that tax amnesty proceeds will not turn out to be the savior that some expected but instead enhances the problematic nature of Louisiana’s fiscal system.

The REC, comprised of three politicians or their representatives and one non-elected economist, forecasts how much in the way of revenue the state will see in current and future fiscal years. As part of this exercise, it deems them recurring or nonrecurring, with the later only spendable by the state on a small set of one-time items. Beginning this year, its duties expanded when it was to forecast not just monies coming into the general fund, but also into all dedicated funds as well.




The chosen amount of recurring revenues caps the amount of money that the state may spend on its operating budget. However, creative accounting can blur the distinction between the two so the panel, perhaps guided by the skepticism of its non-politician member, did not assign all of the first round of the amnesty take to recurring status. Some of it could be considered money that would have been collected eventually thereby making it recurring, while another portion of it would be nonrecurring because it never would have been corralled without an amnesty. The political question then came down to what was the appropriate balance.

Education reformers should dismiss opponents' ploy

The light at the end of the tunnel approaches, which for advocates of educational reform in Louisiana represents escape from a suffocating structure with the ability to start in earnest improving elementary and secondary education delivery in the state, while for opponents means their political power bases are about to get knocked down by the fast approaching reform train.

At first, one might not consider these the relevant metaphors in light of state District Judge Michael Caldwell’s re-ruling that the operative piece of legislation that established the main aspects of this reform – one which makes it easier to hold educators accountable for their job performance – was unconstitutional. He restated last week a conclusion he drew last spring that the bill, Act 1 of 2012, did not adhere to the state constitutional requirement that all bills have but a single object.

But he had to reissue the ruling because the state’s Supreme Court instructed him to do so, after it had reviewed another case brought by reform opponents, challenging another reform law dealing with instituting vouchers in education using the same rationale. That the Court dismissed that part of the other challenge, explaining that the Legislature has large discretion to placing reasonably related items together in a bill where the presumption is made that such arranging is constitutional unless there is an obvious mishmash “gravely repugnant to the constitution,” demonstrates that Caldwell will end up whiffing twice on this, and on appeal will be reversed again.

Early bird Kennedy may tip himself to stay in top race

No, Louisiana Treas. John Kennedy isn’t trying to discourage opponents from contesting for the office he holds by filing his 2013 campaign finance report a month early showing a fat bankroll. Rather, he’s playing one of the few cards he has left if he entertains becoming governor in 2016.

Next month, all candidates for major office and/or who have an existing open campaign account with any activity must supply the state with paperwork on their previous year’s campaign activities, but Kennedy produced his a month early with an impressive net haul of around $600,000 last year to have cash on hand at year’s end of about $3 million. Even though he lists himself as a candidate for reelection, the size of activity and voluntary announcement early point to his real motivation of being governor.

Which, at this point, is dicey. Certain niches already are getting filled, with that of the perceived Republican moderate held by Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne and that of very liberal sacrificial lamb pinned on Democrat state Rep. John Bel Edwards. Kennedy, who has been all over the board ideologically in his past statewide attempts at office but who has been a populist throughout and recently settled on presenting himself as a conservative Republican, has a central problem in that both the populist niche and conservative niche can be filled by a better-known, better-financed, more ideologically consistent, and at least as popular Republican Sen. David Vitter, who early polls put him comfortably in the lead.

LA helps entire nation by call for constitutional convention

It may seem like tilting at windmills, but long journeys start with small steps and Louisiana should forward a resolution to call a federal constitutional convention to discuss matters related to federal government probity.

The idea builds upon a 2010 effort by state Rep. Nick Lorusso, which argued then for only a balanced budget amendment. Lorusso has indicated he would like to try again and to add at least three other matters: imposing other fiscal restraints on the federal government, limiting the power and jurisdiction of the federal government, and term limitation upon members of Congress. For his part, Gov. Bobby Jindal, who will have no authority over any resolution to bring about a convention but who could lobby on its behalf, says he supports the idea of a balanced budget amendment and term limits.

According to the federal Constitution, this follows one of the two methods of proposing amendments to the document, which is two-thirds of states calling for a convention, with the other being Congress itself votes to put forward an amendment to the states for ratification. All amendments have occurred this latter way; however, often Congress has preempted the states on this matter to avoid a convention when the number of states proposing a convention to deal with an amendment has gotten close to two-thirds of the whole, so by passing this resolution Louisiana creates more pressure for Congress to repeat in this way.

Numbers show looming disaster for LA Democrats

While the article that appeared in the Baton Rouge/New Orleans Advocate on voting registration trends in Louisiana and what they might mean provided some interesting information, it could use some elaboration that could have been provided in its text had the reporter interviewed political scientists in addition to just campaign consultants, that should underscore a future of continued Republican success and a looming Democrat disaster.

Disappointingly, the piece’s headline diverged from the reality of the text, proclaiming that “Voters skew away from mainstream parties” when in fact the only party experiencing “skew” is composed of Democrats (or, the headline writer made a huge Freudian slip by not considering the Republicans a “mainstream” party, although the use of plural suggests that was not the intent). The body made clear that Democrats were losing huge numbers while Republicans and no party/other designations (there are three other recognized minor parties but with registration totals that among all of them don’t reach five digits, changes in their raw totals are insignificant) were gaining. More properly, voters are skewing away only from the Democrats.

But even as the GOP continues to gain registrants, according to the most recent statistics at a pace of nearly 11 percent or around 77,000 since the 2008 election while Democrats have dropped over 139,000 or about 9 percent, no party/other voters’ numbers got a boost in that period of over 78,000 or above 12 percent. These numbers that otherwise might make a Democrat wince some try to assuage by arguing the party, which almost two years ago had black registrants top whites for the first time ever, continues to pick up more solid black voters replacing less reliable white ones, the latter group they assert by their decision to switch or their generational replacement by others merely ratifying on paper their cohort’s already less reliable voting behavior for Democrats, has experienced little change in electoral potential.