Perhaps obviously the Shreveport city majoritarian branch elections will make a big splash in northwest Louisiana, with the largest question of whether surprising results from 2022 can replicate.
The Shreveport mayor’s contest tops local office tussles in the region. Four years ago, Republican now-Mayor Tom Arceneaux upset Democrat then-state Sen. Greg Tarver to win in the majority-black city electorate. He accomplished this by making small but significant inroads into the black vote beyond the baseline city-wide Republicans had come to expect, which came as a segment of the black vote simply found Tarver unpalatable.
Since then, Arceneaux’s mission became how at least to hang onto black voters willing to give him a chance under those circumstances and perhaps capture more while hanging on as much as possible to his Republican base. That has produced a mixed bag of results: generally competent leadership but having to navigate consequences of crises he inherited especially up against a hostile Democrat-led City Council, and from time to time scoring own goals.
But having a half-million dollars in the campaign kitty as of year’s start and largely lightweight opponents, perhaps with other quality potential candidates having been mindful of that haul and his incumbency, helps. Those who did qualify largely are minor candidates, three of which deserve some mention.
Democrat Michael Williams held Caddo Parish Commission office years ago, but a jail term for embezzlement limits his upside considerably. Democrat Stormy Gage-Watts currently serves on the Commission, but is fairly much a lightweight politically in the shadow of a more serious choice from her party. Also on the Commission, Republican Jean-Paul Young serves kind of the same role on the more conservative side, precisely because on some prominent votes he has sided with Democrats that push the largest part of the GOP vote, consistent conservatives, into Arceneaux’s camp.
The incumbent only can be threatened by a quality black Democrat who has shown the ability to win in a district of significant size and proven to have inroads into resources, and the only qualifier matching that description is state Rep. Tammy Phelps. Terms in the Legislature, including a bruising win in 2019, not only shows she has the chops for campaigning but also that she can tap into financing and connections. As a bonus, as one of the most leftist populist members of the Legislature (her Louisiana Legislature Log score averaged for the past five years where 0 is a perfect liberal/populist score and 100 a perfect conservative/reform score: 3), she should have no trouble rallying the far-left activism that has taken over Democrats in the state and especially nationally.
Expect her and Arceneaux to outpace the field, but with the lesser candidates earning enough votes to push them to a runoff. Any other combination is far less likely.
Whoever wins will face a City Council gerrymandered to favor Democrats. Interestingly, the only one who will walk in is rookie Republican Tim Euler in District D, who was defeated for a spot on the Commission three years ago. However, District A Democrat Tab Taylor, who will have a chance to serve past two terms as a previous interim appointee, and District C Republican Jim Taliaferro should have no problem swatting away token opposition.
District G Democrat Ursula Bowman might have a little more trouble than she did in her initial run four years ago when she defeated democrat community organizer Derrick Henderson in a runoff after a narrow miss to close out in the general election. He’s back, but Democrat Steven Hall, a local minister, also jumped in. This might drive her to another runoff but the Bowman name carries a lot of weight in that part of town.
District E Democrat Alan Jackson, because at one time he was an interim appointee, gets a chance to serve more than eight years if he can defeat repeater Democrat Alvin Oliver, NAACP president, and Democrat community organizer Francine “Monro” Brown. Jackson is vulnerable because of his recurring negative publicity ranging from ethics accusations to support of controversial measures to controversial statements.
District B Democrat Gary Brooks also may have a stiff fight on his hands. He’s the only white Democrat on the Council representing a district with a large black majority, facing four challengers, the most prominent of which is serial candidate Democrat community activist Craig Lee who running as an independent failed to make the runoff in 2022. While Brooks, a wealthy owner of entertainment venues, is criticized for being out of touch with the district and demographics are against him, his connections and incumbency keep him favored against a lackluster field.
Finally, a free-for-all will occur in District F with four newcomers. The two most extreme candidates appear to be the two no party contenders, Billy Ray Anderson and Decarlous Muntaqim, but they will miss the backing of Democrat activists who would be expected to line up behind NAACP official Lester Smith (who ran for state representative in 2019) or businessman James Sneed. That pair probably has the edge to make what seems to be an inevitable runoff.
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