If winning the Shreveport mayor’s race were only a matter of money, Republicans would control that office for another four years. As it is, that only may determine which Republican advances to a runoff.
After months of campaigning in 2026, submission of campaign finance reports through Sep. 24 were released yesterday. Incumbent GOP Mayor Tom Arceneaux lapped the field with resources remaining of about a third of a million dollars, after having spent almost that much, although raising only around $78,000 in this period. His donors this year to date comprised a number of long-time party activists (he sat on the City Council four decades ago) as well as a few from the near the city, and his spending reflected a broad spectrum of campaign communications.
Technically, challenger Republican Caddo Parish Commissioner John-Paul Young outraised him by a $100,000, with the bulk of his contributors being from his Highland area neighborhood. But his biggest contributor by far was himself, plunking down $130,000 of his own dough on himself that meant others’ donations were fewer than $50,000 that left him with just over $50,000. He spent disproportionately on electronic media and billboard advertising.
Subtracting his self-funding puts him in roughly the same remaining resources ballpark as the two Democrats. Fellow Commissioner Democrat Stormy Gage-Watts. She raised about as much as Young minus his own money, with her donors mainly local and activists traditionally not as involved with the state and local party. However, she spent only around $2,000 on low-key retail campaigning with no mass media buys evident.
As for Democrat state Rep. Tammy Phelps, to her legislative account she about tripled it to close to $100,000 – and spent nothing. She leaned on local activists (including the candidate defeated by Arceneaux, Democrat former state Sen. Gerg Tarver, and Democrat former Mayor Keith Hightower) but also on donors connected to her legislative service such as other legislators and political action committees but kept her powder completely dry.
While Young’s electronic and outdoor media, plus a decent smattering of yard signs around Highland, convey the impression of a campaign that could go someplace, that this has been accomplished on the back of his own resources doesn’t show enough voter enthusiasm to propel him past Arceneaux into a runoff, who for his part has about twice as much in the bank as all his three major competitors together and has plenty of bucks with which to activate his base. For Republicans in a city where black make up a majority of the electorate and Democrats just under that, this has to be an activation election for one GOP candidate to win, and in terms of resources the incumbent is in a far stronger position to pull this off.
As for the Democrats, Gage-Watts appears to bank of a reputational strategy, with her snagging endorsements of the likes of Democrat former Mayor Adrian Perkins and Democrat sheriff Henry Whitehorn, plus scoring donations from other former city councilors and a street-level campaign. Phelps, by contrast, seems to pursue having individuals with connections and intermediaries mobilizing voters on her behalf. Spending later may serve to seal a runoff place and/or get a head start for it.
Neither at this time must engage in an extensive mass media campaign. With the numerical advantage, old school networking in the black community plus a Senate race between a white Republican and black Democrat – both Phelps and Gage-Watts are black – turnout for each candidate won’t be a problem, with Phelps more extensive contacts giving her the edge.
No public polling has been released about the contest, although that may change by the time a scheduled forum later this month takes place. Yet while facing some unfavorable demography, Arceneaux’s huge money advantage keeps him quite competitive for reelection.
No comments:
Post a Comment