National politics churned unusually in the last
week and a day. Election results prompted an unwise change in U.S. House of Representatives
leadership, and Republican Pres. Donald Trump asked
for a received a change of leadership in the Department of Justice.
With the GOP losing its House majority, Rep. Steve Scalise will take
on a diminished role in the chamber’s governance, with any real influence over
its coming business in the next two years a consequence of his relationship
with Trump. This downgrading has led to speculation that Scalise might take a
stab at Louisiana’s governorship, which wouldn’t require him to leave his
congressional post to run.
Enormously popular, Scalise would be the favorite against Democrat incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards. Instead, he has signaled he’ll stay put and serve as second-ranked Republican, a spot he gained earlier today, for the entire two-year term.
That’s wise, as the GOP remains in good shape to retake
the House in 2021. Lower chamber elections usually follow presidential results
in those election years, and with a putative field of far-left pygmies jockeying
to take on Trump and two years for their party’s extremist excesses to become
fully viewed by the voting public, more likely than not at this point Scalise
will find himself no worse than the second-ranked member of Congress in two
years and having a potential speakership in his future. Exiting to become
governor erases this possibility.
Meanwhile, with the departure of former Atty. Gen.
Jeff Sessions, one
name mentioned at the margins as a potential successor is state Atty. Gen. Jeff Landry. He appears at
best a long shot, as other more prominent and experienced people, such as
former federal district attorney and New Jersey Gov. Chris
Christie, are in the mix.
Yet should he get the nod, such a job would entice
Landry. After all, the top law enforcement job in the country has had only 84
occupants, so he would make history and become a national newsmaker with vastly
increased influence compared to his current job.
However, such a move might not work out best for
him in the long run. Still a reasonably young man (turning 48 around
Christmas), the national attorney general position typically ends up as the
peak of a politician’s career. And, even if Trump wins a second term, holders
of the job typically don’t stay on too long, having an average tenure of around
33 months.
Likely, Landry is far from done in politics when
he reaches 50. At this point, he could hold his state office as long as he
likes, but probably at some point he could look to advance to the top step. If Edwards
wins a second term, Landry could go for it in 2023 after eight years of building
a base.
Landry could find himself in position to do it
that in 2023 even if Edwards loses. Because if Edwards does, it’s probable that
Republican Sen. John
Kennedy will be the cause, as polling
favors the senator over the governor when matching up the two of them. In
2023, Kennedy will have turned 72 and may wish only to serve one term. Supposing
he goes for two and wins reelection, Landry then can still step in in 2027, having
a dozen years to build a base and not having reached 60.
Serving as U.S. attorney general for a couple or more
years wouldn’t make such a plan impossible, but as soon as Landry leaves the
job his career would start to go stale, and the longer he stays out of the political
spotlight, the more his electoral capital erodes. With timing somewhat out of
his control, if ambitious Landry would do best to preserve his security by staying
put rather than by gambling with a higher-profile gig that increases the risk
that he ends up high and dry in state electoral politics.
Landry’s announcement today that he
will run for reelection, not governor, appears to reflect he thinks along
these lines. Any decision made public limits his options, and it certainly
would look odd for him to have said this, then abandon his post for the national
equivalent.
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