Poll data may push Landrieu away from nationalized care

Another day, another poll and especially when it’s dealing with figures like Gov. Bobby Jindal, up for reelection in two years; Pres. Barack Obama, up for reelection in three years; and Sen. Mary Landrieu, up for reelection in five years; they usually don’t mean a whole lot. But this one might have some lessons given the attempt by Obama and his Democrat allies to consolidate government control over one-sixth of the U.S. economy.

The poll showed that Louisianans in general are not fond of Obama. He registered only a 44 percent approval rate, six points below his disapproval rate. He also is very polarizing, getting 74 percent support from Democrats but only 12 percent support from Republicans. Of that Democrat preference, about two-fifths of it is represented by the 91 percent of blacks approving; only 25 percent of whites in total do, far behind their massive 68 percent disapproval.

By contrast, Republican Jindal’s 55 percent overall approval rating is 17 points higher than his disapproval number. Scarier for Democrats than his 80-14 percent distribution in favor of approval among Republicans, 59-20 percent margin for independents, and less than 2:1 disapproval among themselves (32-60 percent), is his support differentiated by race: his numbers among whites are just about the opposite of Obama’s (one point higher in approval than disapproval of Obama), but almost as many blacks (21 percent) approve of Jindal as whites do of Obama (70 percent of blacks disapprove of Jindal). This means among white Democrats Jindal is running about even.

The policy nexus between these two is Obama’s plan to complete the process of nationalization of health care by socializing its provision. There are so many bad aspects present in and falsehoods perpetrated by the current bill’s supporters that Louisiana, so often a follower, has by the efforts of its people turned into a leader opposing this horrendous policy (flacks from the Obama Administration on several occasions were gustily booed for their answers at a meeting designed to propagandize it). Which only complements and is reflected by Jindal’s (who started his federal career in the area of health care policy) own strong reservations he has publicized about it.

So Jindal and Louisiana may rally enough opposition nationwide to alter the most obnoxious aspects of the plan, perhaps even to derail it. Yet more important than the publicity they may bring against it is that a crucial vote concerning it will be Landrieu’s. To overcome a sure filibuster by opponents, Democrats must have every single one of themselves ready to slavishly follow Obama’s liberal line. Democrat Landrieu may not be willing to do so.

The poll data showed dead-even numbers of approval/disapproval at 43 percent for her. Particularly worrying for her is that while predictably among Democrats her approval leads disapproval 66-19 percent and is the opposite for Republicans by 18-71 percent, for independents she has approval trailing disapproval 39-44 percent. The trend in the state to 2014 and beyond is for more Republicans and independents and fewer Democrats.

Five years is almost an eternity in politics, but how she votes on this matter, given the magnitude of its importance, is something that will be remembered for a long time. Which probably explains why she has not given any commitment to supporting what current Obama is pushing, despite some heavy-handed Democrat tactics against her. Seeing the way the wind is blowing now may make her even more hesitant to support Obama on this, and thereby save the state and nation a lot of agony.