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1.10.06

Jones primary performance points to runoff victory

Three lessons were learned from Saturday’s balloting in Shreveport:

1. White Republican former city attorney Jerry Jones is the man to beat in the general election runoff against black Democrat state Rep. Cedric Glover. Even as both candidates expressed wishes that race not be factor in their upcoming contest, the fact is that history shows at least 85 percent of whites will vote for a white Republican and over 90 percent of blacks will vote for a black Democrat. In terms of registered voters, white registration numbers outdistance those of blacks by over 1,500, and whites typically have turned out at a rate of about 2 percent higher than blacks, but Jones’ 39 percent exceeded those standards. Conveniently assigning Republican candidate votes to Jones and Democrat candidate votes to Glover except for those of white Democrat Liz Swaine, Jones has 46 percent of the vote, meaning all he would have to get is a third of Swaine’s vote to win in November. He probably will get better than half, so Glover will have to kick up high get-out-the-vote efforts in November; Glover has no chance to win unless he can dramatically increase black turnout. (The issue is not, as one observer speculated, black voters are getting disproportionately older and female, because, other characteristics equal, these people actually are more likely to vote -- it's that, in this particular contest, the white-black gap opened considerably beyond historical norms.)

2. This concern of Glover’s, low black voter mobilization relative to whites, turned out to be a blessing for City Councilman Monty Walford. In the white Democrat’s District B, precincts with large majorities of blacks turned out only at about a 25 percent rate, while those with large majorities of whites were around 40 percent. Given that he appeared to pick up some percentage of racial crossover votes as well, with 42 percent in the primary and likely to grab almost all of the only Republican primary candidate’s 15 percent, his runoff opponent black Democrat Sheva Sims will have to really stimulate her get-out-the-vote efforts even though the district has a black over white majority of over 200. (In fact, this racial turnout differential may have been the difference in the District E win of Republican Ron Webb who beat a Democrat opponent by fewer than 500 votes.)

3. In the city’s fastest growing City Council district, voters appear ripe for bringing on political newcomers. The seasoned, Republicans Caddo Commissioner Bob Brown and former holder of that District D seat Phil Serio, failed to beat out incumbent but making her first elective try for the job Democrat Cynthia Norton Robertson and the top finisher, neophyte politician and Republican businessman Bryan Wooley. Beating out all of these officials present and past, along with his GOP affiliation makes Wooley the strong favorite to boot the unelected Robertson out of office, simultaneously demonstrating that the rapidly-changing district wants new blood on the political scene.

This bodes for a Republican mayor with a veto-proof partisan minority on the City Council.

8 comments:

markcpizzolato said...

Yea, Cedric Glover might be a good guy, but there are a lot of good guys, there was a movie called "Good-Fellas", and they were not so good. The point I'm trying to make is, are there any really good guys out there in politics? My thoughts on Cedric is that the guy has never even had a real job. He's lived off the people most of his life!

Anonymous said...

Since the Save Shreveport link is redirected to David Wooleys website,and you still have the Save Shreveport link up on your site, does this mean you are a Wooley supporter ? Just curious...

Jeff Sadow said...

I didn't know that, about the redirect to Bryan Wooley's campaign site. Thanks for pointing it out. While Wooley is a much superior candidate than his unelected opponent, I want links going to sites with relevant political information, not camapign sites. Thus, I have removed the link to SaveShreveport. That is unfortunate, since in its previous form the site was providing a valuable service to anyone interested in Shreveport politics.

Anonymous said...

Mark,

Was very dissappointed in you putting that Max Malone sign in your yard during the mayors race.

Glad to see you NOW have a Jones sign.

Should have done that from the beginning though.

Bad choice originally.

Anonymous said...

have you checked into the fact that wooley registered to vote in caddo parish april 06 last time voting 1992 also what about not reporting his contributors

Jeff Sadow said...

Not voting in elections is not a crime, although a few people might be turned off by that.

If there's evidence that Wooley has been less than honest in fulfilling reporting requirements, that needs to be reported to the state's Board of Ethics Administration. Absent such credible reports, it is irresponsible and unethical to assert as such in a forum like this.

Anonymous said...

Points of clarification regarding Wooley: #1 The saveshreveport.com site is NO longer being redirected to www.bryanwooley.com - this was done out of sincerity but without Wooley's permission #2 As far as reporting, it is quite obvious that ALL reports have been adequately filed and amended (which is completely OKAY to do) All contributors are listed from my review of the reports including his personal campaign loans. Therefore, there is no evidence to assert "not reporting his contributors" when that can not be proven in the least. Its amazing what some will do to divert the attention from the issues at-hand by making unfounded allegations. #3 Wooley has been back in our community for a few years, after many years of serving a community in South Louisiana. Again, another attempt to make slanderous accusations against someone who is finally capable of making a real difference in our community. Lets just end the political rhetoric and acknowledge that something good may finally happen to our city and that just maybe, qualified, innovative thinkers may have the chance to lead our community into better days!!!

Anonymous said...

anonymous- is the site save shreveport gone? we need it now more than ever. poor cedric is a keith want-a-be..or keith is still incharge???
cedric will not return any phone calls. tom dark will not return any phone calls.
when you present them with a project that will bring millions of dollars and hundreds of jobs to shreveport and they won't return a call. THERE IS A PROBLEM!!!!
not sure where to go from here.
i have contacted the times and they are interested in writing an article. will see.