McCain invite of Jindal won't lead to VP offer

Elsewhere I have shown why, from a political standpoint, Louisiana’s Gov. Bobby Jindal would be unwise to accept nomination as presumptive Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain’s vice presidential running mate. Now it’s time to explain why Jindal’s invitation to hang out with McCain this Memorial Day weekend is unlikely to draw such an offer from McCain.

With his opponent increasingly looking like Sen. Barack Obama, McCain needs four things from a running mate. First, McCain will be the oldest previously unelected president if he wins so while he doesn’t necessarily need a whippersnapper half his age, he does need somebody considerably younger or, at the very least, someone who projects a strong, youthful image who is younger by at least a decade.

Second, suspicion of McCain by conservatives for his considerably moderate, even liberal, views on the environment and government spending requires a reliably conservative partner. Third, that person should be popular in a state that looks to be a toss-up in the Electoral College. Finally, this individual must compensate for Obama’s perceived strengths and not duplicate Obama’s perceived weaknesses.

Public, liberty best served by concealed carry on campus

Unfortunately in politics there’s no meter that filters out emotional advocacy from critical, rational thinking in debate about issues, and the issue most muddied in this session of the Louisiana Legislature by that tendency has been the idea of permitting concealed handguns on college or vocational-technical campuses courtesy of state Rep. Ernest Wooten’s HB 199.

Some oppose the bill because they do not understand the research behind the issue nor the common sense. The title of John Lott’s seminal work on the issue basically says it all: More Guns, Less Crime. In his follow-up The Bias Against Guns and in other scholarly articles by himself and others, he makes the case airtight and demonstrates the flaws in critiques of that view. Simply, when handguns are permitted to be carried concealed by qualified, licensed owners crime decreases because prospective criminals are less likely to believe they can bring overwhelming force against potential victims.

Yet, from the testimony given by college police official and administrators, they appear not to grasp this basic truism about human psychology. Campus police generally oppose the measure because the focus of their concern is inappropriate: they are concerned about having a monopoly of force in any situation and this measure legally reduces that if the possessor of a handgun decides to use it illegally (regardless of whether they have possession of it legally, which this law does not address). A better set of priorities places public safety above police safety, which allowing law-abiding citizens to carry concealed weapons, as research and common sense shows, accomplishes.

Some LA education spending likely to merit retention

As noted yesterday, Louisiana House budget-trimming excised $52 million in state spending (matched with $131 million of federal matching reductions) in health care which can be handled if done properly. The remainder of the $70 million reduction mainly lies in the area of education, and those expenditures perhaps should stay.

The Senate Finance Committee began to lay the groundwork for this chamber’s dealing with HB 1, the bill that directs state operational spending in most areas, taking testimony from Commissioner of Administration Angèle Davis who asked that most of the cut money be restored. Almost simultaneously at different venues, other state officials and interest groups were tossing out their own views about the impact of these cuts.

Some was self-serving piffle. Nursing home interests, who complained about how their reimbursement rates might not increase as much as they would like that would remain among the lower in the nation, of course conveniently forgot to mention that per capita spending on Louisiana nursing homes is about the highest in the nation and the state has almost the most excess capacity. These inefficient drags on the Louisiana taxpayer (which hopefully will be rectified as the state moves away from its institutional bias in provision to one modeled on community-based care) were created as the industry for decades successfully lobbied for the vast bulk of state money to be spent on long-terms care (so that now 85 percent of its revenues come from that source) and it blithely expects that gravy train to continue to make up for its poor forecasting.

Other defenses were much more reasonable. Education officials pointed out how funds reductions would hamper strides to improve education quality in the state, from pre-kindergarten through graduate schools (although marred somewhat by some fantastically stupid remarks about gun control on campuses, but that’s another story). If done right, the payoff for these could merit the expense.

Most intriguingly, however, is that part of the cuts seems to put on the back burner Gov. Bobby Jindal’s most ambitious goal concerning universities – realigning funding on the basis of performance indicators. Not surprisingly, higher education wants to have funding continue at the present level – matching the “formula” computed from the average of its Southern peers – without having any mechanism for accountability which is the purpose of the indicators.

Making things even more interesting is that subtle planned budget changes may run the state afoul of the provision that caps state spending increases at the same rate personal individual income growth rises, strengthening the original case of the House that it wanted to reduce spending to curb reliance on “one-time” funds sources for recurring expenditures. Jindal’s budget was well under that figure but contemplated moves could change that, such as plans to appropriate $307.1 million into a “megafund” to attract large employers but shifting up to $100 million out if that remains on Oct. 1 for other purposes could bump up against the cap. In light of this, Davis admitted some budget cutting may have to stay.

House desires and spending cap realities argue that the Senate won’t do a whole lot of restoration to the budget. Where it does happen, probably it will happen mostly in the area of education, and towards the more basic levels. Regardless, dealing with the budget to date also is notable for something else: it’s ahead of the typical schedule by a couple of weeks. One can dream therefore that its debate will be deliberative – especially on the conference committee end where often decisions about what to keep, throw out, and even add have been made in less than a day – meaning some extra rationality may be injected into a process that typically largely, if not totally, lacks it.

Easy choice for health spending reductions: nursing homes

Assuming the House’s budget-trimming zeal on the state’s operating budget HB 1 survives, choices must be made in cutting requests for health care spending. While the reduction as a whole (which is still an increase over last year’s amount by almost 4 percent, of which the state’s increase in operating appropriations is increased about 20 percent) may seem difficult for Department of Health and Hospitals Secretary Alan Levine, the choice where the majority of redacted spending should come from is easy.

Four areas could face reductions, all dealing with payments to providers of medical services: doctors, hospitals, community care agencies, and nursing homes. The first two mainly would involve reimbursement for Medicaid in the treating of the indigent. This would not be wise as the state looks to move away from its institution-based system of care that has created an inefficient, underperforming charity hospital network. Already reimbursement costs are among then lowest in the nation, so to encourage less state government involvement and more private sector and nonprofit involvement in indigent care, reimbursement rates if anything would need to go higher.

Community care agencies form the bedrock of community-based health care, the antithesis of institutional-based care. In this model, health care provision is farmed out to individuals whether they meet outside of the home to receive services, while they still remain able to live at home rather than in an institution. In most cases, this turns out to be a far less expensive alternative that usually provides superior care. This is accomplished through waivers granted by the federal government for programs designed to accomplish this purpose by the state.

Ensure LA state ethics enforcement has enough funds

Just because some have made a mountain out of a molehill regarding recent ethics standards changes in Louisiana does not mean some alteration is out of order.

While some have argued the change, which changes the standard for guilt in ethics matters from “preponderance of evidence” to “clear and convincing” which is higher, makes these matters “unenforceable,” this neither is objective nor rational. Many states employ the higher standard (some even a more stringent one) and that well may be appropriate given that some violations could lead to criminal charges.

A legitimate question, however, is whether resources planned for the Louisiana Ethics Administration Program will be sufficient to meet the higher standard. Its adjudicatory duties have been shifted to professional administrative law judges which will save money and the Gov. Bobby Jindal Administration is budgeting more than double what the agency now receives. Still, its duties also have increased in terms of the number and length of forms to sift through.

Although Jindal did not seem to know of and/or understand the ramification of the wording change (nor for that matter, almost anybody in the Legislature which made no comments on it during debate), after the bill was passed the Ethics Board made him aware of the change and, somewhat questionably, gave unsolicited advice that he veto it. So since he signed it, Jindal now bears responsibility if ethics enforcement is hampered by the new requirement creating too much demand on resources.

The Legislature also bears responsibility now that it knows and it has amended a specific instrument to deal with the matter. HB 906 was changed to revert back to the previous standard. Thus, if the Legislature does not want to increase the workload and thereby passes it, and then if Jindal doesn’t want to either and thus signs it, the matter will be settled.

But if the reversion does not become law, then it will be incumbent on the Legislature and governor to provide adequate funding. Whether the present amount in HB 1 is adequate is debatable. To be on the safe side, some increase may be in order. So one or the other should be done: cancel the language change, or increase funding to support the new language.

Jindal finally on board tax cut train, but paid high fare

Finally, almost a month later, Gov. Bobby Jindal jumped on the train spawned by state Sen. Buddy Shaw’s SB 87 which would provide a tax cut for middle-class households to the tune of $302 million a year. The wonder is why he didn’t leap early into the engine cab rather than catch onto the caboose, and what prompted him to do so?

Despite information showing excess state funds beyond what Jindal’s 2008-09 budget had anticipated, despite the House cutting spending that would have partially offset the “cost” of the cut, despite legislative criticism of some of Jindal’s spending plans, the most Jindal ever committed to on this bill was after initial opposition he agreed he would sign in it if commensurate cuts were made. Meanwhile, others perceived that in allowing a poison pill amendment that altered the bill to make it wipe out individual, estate, and trust income taxes over 10 years that would give Jindal an excuse not to sign it, Jindal really wanted to kill it.

This line of behavior, given Jindal’s stated desire to reduce the size of government and his goal of reducing or eliminating income taxes in the future, could lead only to two assumptions about Jindal’s thinking on the matter. One was Jindal had very serious concerns about looming budget deficits and the use of “one-time” money (generated from non-recurring sources like federal grants, even if they would be considered “recurring” under the state’s definition for budgeting purposes) to fund recurring commitments and even given his enthusiasm for tax relief he felt he simply could not do it.

However, Jindal never tried to make a public case to justify his opposition on these grounds, which either was a sign of poor political skill or implied the other potential motive, that Jindal really didn’t care about delivering tax cuts when he had a decent chance to do so. Whatever the reason, Jindal today announced his support for the original bill with only one change, beginning implementation in tax/budget year 2009 rather than 2008.

What changed Jindal’s mind? Was it irreversible momentum that made him go against his better judgment about the budget and/or skepticism about tax cuts? Did further review satisfy him that a 2009 start would not be imperiling state finances? Or was there some kind of deal made? (Maybe some of all of the above?)

If a deal is involved with the House and/or Senate, likely it would involve either or both of two things. One is with the issue of earmarks slipped into the state’s operating budget that Jindal promised to review very stringently, the other is legislator pay raises to among the highest in the nation and the highest in the South despite this being a part-time job in a state that underperforms in almost every way, which one might presume Jindal would oppose on the principle of smaller government.

The House and Senate may have threatened Jindal to send the amended bill through and dare him to veto it unless they got these kinds of concessions. If they did and Jindal blinked, in a few weeks he unenthusiastically will pursue these ends. Thus the people would suffer unwise spending if so in addition to Jindal’s squandering of political capital. But if he shows zeal with his veto pen, nothing may have been brokered.

Regardless, Jindal took a big hit to his reputation on his issue. In order for him to reassure a number of conservatives and reformers that heretofore have supported him, in the future he may have to be act more boldly more quickly than he had planned on their agendas.

New public records exemption approach needs action

While it’s agreed by the Gov. Bobby Jindal Administration and reformers that there ought to be more transparency in the governor’s office, finding the right way to do has been elusive and demands a new approach.

Right now, over five dozen agencies that got folded into the office remains exempt from public records requests. The problem is the original law that established the general concept of exemption simply said the governor’s office was exempt, and over the decades various reorganizations have stuffed more and more agencies and functions into it.

One approach, passed out of committee in the House, HB 1100 by state Rep. Wayne Waddell, would specify a select few positions in the governor’s office. However, the bill leaves too much ambiguity regarding the relationships of those officials to others who work for them and interrelate with them. For example, argued executive counsel Jimmy Faircloth, would a communication from a secretary in a covered position to one that was not count? No doubt meaningful and appropriate lines eventually could be figured out, but at the cost of a great deal of inefficiency and even court challenges.

Another, supported by the Administration, represented by SB 629 by Sen. Mike Walsworth which awaits the full Senate, specifies many exceptions although many fewer than currently exist. But the problem there is that in most cases they were chosen because some part, no matter how minor, of their duties logically would fall under an exception but the remainder of their duties which should not be exempt would be.

The problem is these bills focus on the jobs and positions, not on the actual content of the communications which is an approach many other states use. The ideal bill, which as yet doesn’t exist, would offer a very few blanket exemptions – governor, chief of staff, executive counsel, and others whose jobs routinely handle sensitive information like the inspector general and Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness. Otherwise, for all other communications, categories based on content should be defined legally and exactly, leaving no room for ambiguity but at the same time not covering under the umbrella things that have no justification for being there.

Either of these instruments can be amended into these forms, and should be, in order to reach a goal that theoretically everybody wishes to attain.

Arguments of opponents to capital outlay reform "fluff"

So does it or doesn’t it? While most of the Louisiana Senate agreed SB 808 by state Sen. Rob Marionneaux improves the current capital outlay process for the state and thereby passed, a few senators did not and voted against it. Let’s figure this out.

The bill makes several changes. It allows a rise in the $200 million cap on capital expenditures by the rate of inflation. It requires at least 75 percent to be spent on state projects and on those that aren’t in most cases the local of nongovernmental must come up with 25 percent of the funding on its own. It collapses the categorization system into a five-year plan set by law. It pushes back the change date from Nov. 1 to Dec. 15. These aren’t controversial provisions.

Two, however, were. One is that the proposed law retains the present law’s absence of a cap on the total amount of that could be put into the bill. Theoretically, the five-year plan submitted by the governor would include a little over $1 billion. But nothing under either present or the proposed law would prevent the Legislature from putting in more requested amounts than the cap, whether the annual limit now or the proposed five-year plan limit. As a result, presently the Legislature loads up the bill and passes it, leaving in the hands essentially of the governor (because the State Bond Commission gives formal assent to selling the debt per project and the governor’s appointees and allies have a majority on it) to decide what gets funded.

The other is that the proposed law seeks to change how feasibility is determined. The present standard is documentation submitted to the Office of Facility and Planning Control in the Division of Administration in the governor’s office alone suffices. The bill mandates that objective standards are to be developed and employed to assign a ranking to each project which is now not done.

State Sen. Robert Adley was the vocal critic of the lack of a cap on requests. Adley, who had a competing bill that was almost identical to this one and who amended it to reflect the bill prior to SB 808 (it is a substitute) in committee, wanted to put one of 140 percent and have the final list going before the Commission to be approved by legislative committees. Together, these would give much less flexibility to the administration in championing projects.

When his amendment that would have done these things failed by one vote, Adley sulked and declared he wouldn’t vote for the bill almost like his because it had too much “fluff” and wasn’t real reform. Of course, through his pouting Adley neglected to mention something that completely negated his argument: it is solely up to the Legislature to choose whether to fund projects. The Legislature chooses to load up the capital outlay bill and hands the selection power to the governor. Further, Adley’s idea of having committees approve a slate of projects after the governor’s signature violates the idea of separation of powers by first giving the governor the list and then approving whatever he approves again. If the Legislature really wants to control the process, all it must do is send $200 million worth of projects and leave the governor only with the options of vetoing the entire bill or exercising line item vetoes – both which the Legislature could reverse. Adley is trying to legislate willpower into the Legislature through dubious constitutional means.

State Sen. Troy Hebert voiced the other main objection, that the feasibility studies now made formal into the administration’s role will skew the process in its favor. Again notable is what is left out here: the Legislature is under no compulsion to give any weight in its capital outlay decisions to the results of the studies. It can appropriate for any project it wants (subject to the new 25/25 rule and ceiling), as long as it there was a feasibility study submitted for it (constitutionally they must be listed in order of priority but higher priorities aren’t forced into the budget over lower). Besides, the rules promulgated for analyzing the projects are themselves subject to review by committees of each chamber before implementation. Again, it’s just a matter of legislative willpower if it wants to assert its authority in this matter.

Analysis shows that if there’s any fluff in on this issue, it’s in the arguments of Adley and Hebert. SB 808 is a welcome change and deserves to become law.

Tax, budget cut jockeying may allow Jindal comeback

The drama continues concerning the earthquake-like effects of SB 87 by state Sen. Buddy Shaw which has turned into a needless political chess game causing anxiety both for elected officials and taxpayers. However, particularly for the state and Gov. Bobby Jindal a successful resolution presents itself.

The bill as originally envisioned would have changed income tax brackets back to those of five years ago which would create a middle-class tax break of $500 or $1,000 per taxpaying household. Instead, it was amended in a Senate committee to eliminate all individual income taxes over ten years, with rates decreasing by a tenth every year. Many “supporters” of the amended bill in reality wanted to make it such a poison pill that either the Legislature would defeat it or Jindal would veto it – and by all indications Jindal seemed willing to cooperate in this.

Jindal’s story kept changing on it. First, his Administration said it was against it. Then it said it would sign it if cuts elsewhere in the budget to compensate for it would be made. Then the bill got amended, and not long afterwards the Revenue Estimating Conference declared an $824 million surplus a portion of which easily could “pay” for the cut, yet Jindal announced all of that surplus should go to substitute for “one-time” money – meaning he didn’t think it should be used for offsetting the cut, whether in the bill’s original form.

Yesterday, the House committee responsible for suggesting cuts to the governor’s budget did some of that -- $120 million which almost exclusively targeted education and health care which it said was using these “one-time” dollars. But more egregiously, it shifted other money around to fund about 140 local projects to the tune of around $15 million, even though Jindal had said that he was going to line-item veto projects of which many appeared to be of the kind that were added.

Today, debate in another House committee on SB 87 should have commenced. Yet today it got postponed for more research – which presumably had been going on since Friday’s surplus announcement – into options and feasibility.

An expensive game of chicken may be going on here. House members may be bargaining with Jindal, saying they will put the bill into a form he seems willing to sign – the latest rumor being phasing in the cut over four years – keeping the new surplus in essence unspent to allay Jindal’s stated fears of using “one-time” bucks on recurring expenses which was the rationale for cutting the $120 million and maybe even restoring that, so long as Jindal doesn’t touch most of the newly-added spending (no doubt the leadership would allow for a few symbolic strikes of the veto pen). If Jindal doesn’t deal, then they send the bill through as is and dare him to veto it and the negative political repercussions that could result from a governor who said his goal was to get rid for the individual income tax doing exactly the opposite.

But if this is what is going on and Jindal is smart and sincere in his tax-cutting desires, he can use this to turn the tables. He can tell the Legislature (the House would be carrying the Senate’s water on this deal, making the deal on its behalf as well for its senatorial projects) that unless they give him the original SB 87 that he will sign to make everybody look good and trim most of the added spending, he’ll sign the amended version and then kill off all those earmarks, plus a lot more of what they may value in other places, in the name of savings to “afford” the cut. That would dare the Legislature to try to overturn the line item vetoes (it never has) or to kill the tax cut on its own and bring the negative attention onto itself.

Ever since Jindal let the tax cut issue get out of his control by refusing to endorse it, his rhetoric about tax cuts and “one-time” money has been used against him. This bold stroke would put him back in control and it would take equal boldness for the Legislature to try to oppose, such as keeping those $120 million in cuts and calling what they may think is a bluff. But after the House’s words of caution about “one-time” money it can’t suddenly go out on a spending spree to compensate, and Jindal will then be sitting nearly a billion bucks that can be used (through debt reduction thus lower service payments and other means) to compensate for the tax cut in either form (both would cost about the same for the first year, but then obviously the amended version would escalate much more afterwards).

The scenario may offer Jindal a way out of the mess he created for himself and with successful enforcement of budget discipline through his veto pen and a tax cut presented way ahead of schedule, he’ll come out looking really good – besides, of course, doing prodigious service to the people of the state. We’ll just have to see if this is the opportunity presented, and what transpires.

Shreveport/Bossier needs real development leadership

While Shreveport metropolitan area denizens hear all the hype about the area’s burgeoning film industry, conventions supposedly coming to town, or the probable coming of the U.S. Air Force Cyber Command, the reality is the area ranks near the bottom of places for business and careers, according to Forbes Magazine. If area politicians can stop breaking their arms patting themselves on their backs for a moment and pay attention to this, maybe they can learn how to try to improve matters.

Shreveport’s metropolitan area ranks 162nd on the Forbes list out of the largest 200 metropolitan areas. Not that this placement is exceptionally bad in Louisiana – the best ranking is held by Baton Rouge at 142, and Shreveport is sandwiched by New Orleans and Lafayette. Among smaller areas, nor does Louisiana’s rank well either, ranging from 128 to 156. Nine categories were used to make this ranking, which provide clues as to how the area can increase its desirability.

Incredibly, Shreveport ranks this low despite being fifth-best in terms of the cost of doing business, which includes taxation and costs of labor, energy, and office space. Even more incredibly, the taxation component depresses this specific ranking, because even though Caddo Parish (like most of Louisiana’s on the list) ranks in the bottom 20 nationally because of the homestead exemption, sales taxes are above average. It’s the resource costs which are really low, but only energy’s for a good reason – lots of it nearby being pumped and refined. Office space is cheap because of a glut, and labor costs are cheap due to several other factors.