There’s nothing like getting an early start it seems for Republican Treas. John Fleming, who two years out from the 2026 Senate election has declared his intention to take on vulnerable GOP incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy.
He may not be the last quality candidate to enter the fray from his party. In the past, Cassidy might have expected only token opposition from anywhere on the political spectrum. Finishing two terms off a convincing 2020 win, he has banked through the third quarter of 2024 $5.8 million.
However, immediately after reelection he began making controversial votes, principally in favor of convicting after impeachment Republican former Pres. Donald Trump and for an enormous spending bill Democrats favored that ballooned the deficit further and ignited inflation that had little relatively in worthwhile or sensible objectives. If he took this course because he wanted to obviate a challenge from prominent conservatives by throwing bones to moderate and even liberal voters because of the blanket primary system in place where all candidates regardless of party run together in the general election, it backfired.
That’s as when Republican Gov. Jeff Landry gained office he rallied legislative conservatives in the majority to install partially closed primaries for all federal and statewide offices except single executives. Starting next month, assuredly the majority of voters in a Republican Senate primary will be conservatives who look askance at Cassidy’s recent record, who will want to back a conservative without warts.
Fleming easily passes that test, given his impeccably conservative voting record in the House of Representatives from 2009-17 and his staunch defense of Trump (and having worked for Trump in the White House). And he went straight for Cassidy’s jugular in his first campaign announcements, noting Cassidy’s impeachment vote and pork bill vote and contrasting those with his record and preferences.
Cassidy retorted that Fleming appeared to be job-hopping, as the treasurer entered that office less than a year ago. But that reeks of throwing stones from a glass house, as Cassidy himself hopped into Congress (into the House at the same time as Fleming) after less than a year as a member of the state Senate.
In a closed primary, Fleming at this point is at worst even money to defeat Cassidy. While his official campaign account has yet to be established, Fleming can match Cassidy’s resources easily, even as Cassidy in this election cycle collected over 40 percent of his contributions from political action committees and about 80 percent of his individual donations came from out-of-state. When he left Congress, Fleming was estimated to be worth $28.8 million and likely did well financially during the Trump years. From his treasurer race, he still had at the end of last year over $100,000 left and throughout the course of it lent himself $300,000, half paid off by year’s end.
It will be no problem for him to spread a message appealing about himself to conservatives and derogatory about Cassidy. The only reason Cassidy even will be competitive is that nonpartisans can pick a party’s primary in which to vote, meaning Cassidy must hope a large number of no party or independent registrants will choose to do so and in the GOP primary and for him. Still, with 60 percent of the state’s electorate having pushed the button for Trump to aid in his return to the White House in just over five weeks, if Cassidy’s only main competitor for the nomination – and he may be, given the pair could far outdistance any other Republican in spending – Cassidy should be worried.
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