Why are nearly daily announcements, ad campaigns preemptively launched, and lengthy analysis of Maryland resident’s John Breaux Louisiana citizenship dominating political discourse? One wrong answer is that opposition to the candidacy of Breaux by Republicans and conservatives indicates unusual trepidation of a Breaux candidacy and lack of confidence in GOP frontrunner Rep. Bobby Jindal.
Following analysis in this space, it is becoming generally accepted by observers of all political persuasions that a Breaux candidacy would constitute a tremendous risk for Democrats to take which at worst will leave them without an “official” candidate come October and almost certainly will go down in defeat given the fodder produced by a candidacy asking the state to play fast and loose with its own Constitution and an opposition more than able to publicize that. Thus, it is the last thing Breaux, Democrats, and the supporters of politics-as-usual want, protracted conflict reminding the voting public of this.
But, obviously, it is exactly what Jindal, Republicans, and reformists want to have happen. They will take any opportunity to remind the public, with an election still over six months away, of who Breaux is and that his and his allies’ very actions regarding his candidacy illustrate perfectly a major reason why Louisiana is so backwards compared to the rest of America (because good-old-boy politicians look first to taking care of their own interests and those of their allies through powerful government, throwing ethics and integrity out the window, while the liberties of other individuals are just an afterthought), to drive home another nail into the liberal/populist elite that have run roughshod over Louisiana for decades.
The ultimate payoff is if Breaux does run. His opponents are rapidly creating a condition where any such success in gaining ballot access will appear illegitimate, destroying any chance he has of winning. This is why, as I have counseled before, Breaux must move as quickly as possible to set the state for another Democrat’s candidacy, then exit immediately, to prevent continuing the long-term damage he will do to his Democrat/liberal/populist co-religionists.
A more sophisticated analysis of the situation reveals hammering on the Breaux qualification question occurs not out of fear, nor from poor strategy (that theory being don’t attack with a lead, as polls continue to show Jindal with a huge advantage in a hypothetical matchup with Breaux). Rather, proper understanding reveals that opponents of politics of the past in the state understand elements are converging rapidly in their favor and the opportunity exists to move the state forward farther than they believed before the troubled nature of the Breaux candidacy surfaced, as long as it continues to limp along. It is the lack of understanding of this by Breaux sympathizers which increases the magnitude of this opportunity.
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