Last week several candidates for
statewide office opened their cheeks wide and got their statewide campaign temperatures
taken, bringing signs of health for some but worrying signs of sickness for
others.
The information came courtesy of a
pair of polls, one
taken by a firm that works with Gov. Bobby
Jindal, the other
from a firm hired by Treas. John
Kennedy, who has not stated any election intention for this or next year,
that by virtue of which enabled his name to appear in both. The former, among
other things, asked about potential gubernatorial candidates this year, while
the latter gauged opinion about hypothetical gubernatorial, attorney general,
and 2016 senatorial contests.
In the former, undeclared but
possible Democrat candidate New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu led the way with 28
percent, Republican Sen. David Vitter
received 27 percent, Republicans Kennedy and Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne trailed at 11 percent each,
while Republican Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle mustered only 6 percent
and dragging the rear was Democrat state Rep. John Bel Edwards at 4 percent.
The latter survey’s gubernatorial choices led to Vitter having 24 percent,
Edwards 20 percent, Kennedy 13 percent, Dardenne 10 percent, and Angelle 2
percent.
Vitter’s campaign health checked in
as the most robust. He held decisive leads over any GOP contender, and the
dynamics attendant to the Democrats reinforces his favorite status while making
Edwards appears the sickest. The fact that putting in the name of Landrieu took
away almost all Edwards’ support, yet he ran second when the only Democrat
mentioned, shows both that he truly is the B-side
candidate for Democrats who they would abandon with a more substantial candidate
in the race (which basically only could be Landrieu at this point) and that the
choices that Democrats offer won’t be nearly quality enough to win, but loyalty
to them by their voters will be enough to knock out all other GOP contestants
except Vitter, leaving Vitter in the enviable position of essentially a
guaranteed win should these dynamics hold.
Some of Landrieu’s boost and
Edwards’ fall comes from name recognition at this time, which a campaign can
change, and the same is true for Vitter’s numbers (and especially Angelle’s,
with his regional base at this time). But even taking that into account, the
magnitudes involved show no reason not to think that Vitter is the clear
clubhouse leader.
From Kennedy’s perspective, he got
better news regarding his flirtations with other offices. For attorney general,
he led the pack at 23 percent, with a needed hypothetical Democrat for survey
purposes in the form of Alexandria Mayor Jacques Roy at 18 percent, incumbent
Republican Atty. Gen. Buddy Caldwell
at 17 percent, and former U.S. Rep Jeff
Landry at 10 percent. Regarding the 2016 Senate race, assuming Vitter were
to become governor, at 18 percent he ran ahead of other Republicans Reps. Charles Boustany and John Fleming, with 13 and 7
percent, respectively, but well behind Landrieu at 39 percent. Only the other
Republicans at this time have expressed interest in taking over from Vitter.
Again, name recognition in this
latter instance must play some role in the numbers, with the other two
Republicans having only regional bases at this time, but Kennedy certainly is competitive,
although it should be a little worrying to him that Landrieu, who has made no
mention of a desire for Senate service and must be hesitant after his sister
got shellacked in her reelection bid to it last year, could open such a wide
lead on him, perhaps echoing the defeat Mary Landrieu put on Kennedy for her
seat in 2008. This may indicate that the other two Republicans have greater
potential if and when they become better known statewide.
Kennedy’s attorney general number
undoubtedly should brighten his day. Impressively, not only does he lead the
incumbent but also another populist conservative in Landry. Yet again, Landry’s
base may be regional, but he has been running actively for the office for nearly
a year so Kennedy without campaigning still trumps that. However, should no
quality Democrat get into the race, the majority of their votes probably would
end up in Caldwell’s column, making chances of victory against him in a runoff
a toss-up. Still, Kennedy seems to be countering Landry’s strength with more of
his own, which may make him regarded as the best available by conservatives to
defeat Caldwell.
Of course, there’s so far to go,
but at nine months out these data set parameters suggesting who all has the
more realistic chances of winning and can affect campaign and donation
decisions in the coming months.
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