Caldwell is the most
recent convert of the entire statewide elected executive officers to the
Republican Party who didn’t start their elective careers with that label, but
throughout his career in office continues to act in ways that make GOP voters
and conservatives suspicious. He favored, contrary to state law, contingency
contracts for outside counsel (unless they reduce the power he has over a case),
refused
to defend the state against federal overreach, ducked
on enforcing state law regarding subsidiary governments committing themselves
to expensive contracts, and chose
poorly in pursuing jackpot justice that lost the state the opportunity to gain a
realistic settlement. Landry criticized him on some of these matters and
his political profile certainly suggests he might find fault with all of these
Caldwell actions and the general perception that Caldwell is too eager to go after
deep-pocketed entities in order to enrich allies and trial lawyers, which serves
to discourage economic activity and to encourage activist government.
While Landry certainly has the
conservative credentials, burnished with his one term in Congress, to assure
voters that as attorney general he would intervene in civil matters judiciously
(little of the office’s purview concerns criminal law) and in a balanced way
that does not favor litigators nor acts punitively, it’s the non-ideological
aspects of his candidacy that make his chances for victory less certain. It’s
been many decades since an attorney (one with experience is a required
qualification) without some connection to criminal prosecution held the office,
although likely only a small number of voters would find this reason enough not
to vote for Landry.
Perhaps more problematic is
Landry didn’t leave Congress on the best of terms with some conservative
activists because of his no-holds-barred attempt at reelection. With reapportionment
throwing him into the same district with, and one that favored, incumbent GOP
Rep. Charles Boustany, the
attack mode that Landry felt he had to pursue against a senior Member not much
less conservative than he not only failed significantly but also burned some
bridges that have yet to be rebuilt. Had he gracefully retired and honed in
immediately on state office behind the scenes, by now he might have established
himself as a clear favorite with a bankroll already burgeoning.
As it is, conservatives probably
recognize there’s unlikely a stronger candidate out there, given his past
proven ability to campaign and raise money. And if it’s just those two,
Caldwell might be the favorite because liberals and Democrats would choose him,
along with enough Republicans turned off by Landry’s past bombast. By contrast,
should a Democrat enter the contest, Caldwell likely would experience enough
siphoning of votes that he would get squeezed out, setting up, given state
demographics, Landry in a runoff he almost certainly wins, absent a Democrat candidate
that credibly can hew to the center that presently, in terms of the available
party bench, seems unavailable. The only other announced candidate
is assistant district attorney for the 18th Judicial District Marty Maley, who is a recent switcher to
the GOP, and at this point his presence either would not change this dynamic or
push Caldwell and Landry into a runoff.
If this dynamic holds, out of
anti-Landry sentiment Democrats might think twice about backing anybody, if not
actively trying to discourage anyone willing to stick a “D” next to their ballot
designation. An alternative strategy could be to help indirectly Maley instead,
but even with Caldwell’s baggage the resources of incumbency make him the more
likely candidate to stave off Landry. But if they are unsuccessful in keeping a
non-Republican out of the race, they may feel their best shot is to go all in
with Maley in the hopes somehow he can split the Republican anti-Caldwell vote and
send Caldwell and the non-Republican to the runoff.
But the way things played out,
Caldwell’s action in office have made him vulnerable, and Landry’s last campaign
eroded his chances of successfully challenging. Thus this may produce the most
entertaining and open contest on the 2015 ballot – after, of course, the governor’s
race.
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