Graves, who will run as a Republican
and who until recently was the head of the Louisiana Coastal Protection and
Restoration Authority, brings a skill set to the campaign unmatched by any
other candidate. As part of that previous gig, he was based in Baton Rouge but
had plenty of opportunity to interact with the coastal areas of the district (it
doesn’t stretch all the way to the water, but it gets close). With most of the
district within 25 miles of the Mississippi, coast, or other major waterway, given
the relationship that flooding has with coastal issues, he knows a number of
area officials. Plus, his work many years ago for former Republican Rep. Billy
Tauzin in what was then that district can’t hurt. In a geographical sense, no
other candidate can match his contacts.
The same goes for potential
volunteers, endorsers, and donors. His appointment by Gov. Bobby
Jindal and good working relationship with him for six years ensures that
Jindal supporters will review his candidacy favorably. Yet his work on Capitol
Hill for Tauzin and Democrat former Sen. John Breaux not only will bring him
some support from out of state as well as in it, but it also means he can make
inroads among non-Republicans. As a bonus, reactions about his tenure at the
CPRA from the environmentalist community on the whole were good, even
from some of the most extremist organizations involved.
Only two questions pop out on
this résumé. First, he has never run as a candidate, but his considerable experience
working around them for his bosses probably minimizes any potential drawbacks
from inexperience. Second, his conservative credentials are unknown to the
public, but that he also worked for Sen. David Vitter – with Jindal
the most powerful politician in the state who could nudge support his way and
would be the candidate Vitter would endorse if he gives any such thing
officially – and his initial announcement of candidacy touched upon themes
likely to appeal to conservatives, such as controlling the ballooning federal
government spending over the past five years, opposition to the basic statist theory
behind the misnamed Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, and concern
over stifling economic regulation. If he can campaign expanding on those, he
can lock in the necessary critical mass of the conservative segment of the
electorate necessary to win.
He also appears in the
announcement to take a stab at the issue of increasing dysfunction in
Washington that helped along Rep. Vance
McAllister in his special election win to the north last year. His
potential to put together a coalition of enough conservatives and
non-Republicans attracted by his experience, interpersonal relations at all
levels of government, and initial sounds about making Washington work better,
combined with his acceptability to some segments of the political left, his
geographic reach, and capability to raise money make him a difficult candidate
for other contenders to rein in.
His entry spawns several
implications for the contest going forward. To start, no other competitive
Republican will enter, for the dwindling space for such a candidate, already to
the point of becoming insufficient to support that kind, has just gotten sucked
up. On good terms both with Jindal and Vitter, it minimizes the chances to win of
someone like Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle or Family Research
Council Pres. Tony Perkins. However, his entrance makes for an apocalyptic scenario
for Democrats given his potential adequate non-Republican appeal. Just as the
air has gone out to support another major Republican, so has it for any (if any
exist that are electable) moderate Democrat in the district. The only Democrat
now that even could make a runoff would be the unelectable kind, such as any of
a dozen or so black elected officials or Prisoner #03128-095.
Therefore, expect GOP candidates
who can to emphasize their conservative credentials in order to differentiate
themselves from Graves upon whom they will try to paint as too moderate and/or
willing to compromise, which may mean a rightward tug to the race. Perhaps best
positioned to do this is businessman Paul
Dietzel, who already has amassed a war chest and endorsements from
conservative interests what will keep him in the upper rank of candidates. By
contrast, this is the second leak to develop in the balloon representing the candidacy
of the only currently-elected official in the contest, state Sen. Dan Claitor (who self-inflicted
the first one) who now finds Graves taking part of his Capitol/downtown
Baton Rouge crowd base and stealing part of his crossover potential that
exceeds his potential with conservatives.
Finally, in the Legislature interests
backing the likes of Claitor, or who cling to Democrat hopes, or perhaps even
some conservative Republicans who might be suspicious of Graves, may turn the
CPRA’s annual
plan, usually the subject of next to no debate in the body, into a
political football. As Graves was the major influence in its writing, subject
to board approval, opponents of his could heat up debate and criticism of
to create a proxy conflict hoping to degrade his candidacy.
Given all these dynamics, it’s
tough to argue that Graves isn’t the man to beat. Of course, a poorly-executed
campaign can scuttle quality candidacies, but on the basis of what he brings
comparatively to the contest, at this point Graves looks to be the likeliest
winner of the bunch.
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