For months, the governor’s race
dynamics have presented a challenge to him. Sen. David Vitter’s strong conservative
credentials plus ability to meld populist preferences into him make his a
formidable Republican challenger. Meanwhile, Democrats wishing to have an
affair with Dardenne on their endorsed standard-bearer state Rep. John Bel Edwards, given the
former’s good government record while in the state Senate but willingness to
raise taxes to fund it, have another suitor from the right-of-center in Republican
Public Service Commissioner Scott
Angelle. With the vote closer to the center split by Dardenne and Angelle,
Vitter and Edwards have clear sailing to dominate among voters at the ends of
the ideological spectrum, leaving Angelle and Dardenne dragging the rear and
considerably behind the others.
Now with fewer than eight weeks
remaining until the Oct. 24 election, the stability of these dynamics suggest
nothing will change as long as the candidates continue to stress the same
themes and issues. So, perhaps shaken by a recent report, Dardenne decided to
do just that.
Prior to a candidate
forum sponsored by a Baton Rouge radio station, Dardenne suffered a public
relations setback when information backed by photographic evidence emerged
suggesting coordination between his political action committee and his
campaign, which is forbidden by law. Of course, the fact that leaders from both
organizations were seen yukking it up over dinner and drinks does not mean they
were plotting strategy together in violation of the law, but when the Vitter
camp publicized the information and implied this motivation, at the very
least it did not look so good for Dardenne, who has emphasized ethics issues as
part of his platform.
Vitter’s fundraising prowess likely
has contributed to Dardenne’s polling woes, and all the other candidates have
decried Vitter’s ability to have raised on his behalf, by campaign or by PAC, more
money than all of their resources combined as something, if not illegal, at
least somehow unseemly. Dardenne ratcheted up this theme when in response to
the Vitter-revealed photograph and comments by having his campaign question the
separateness of the Vitter campaign and PAC as a principal of each are married
to each other.
But then, at this forum, Dardenne
took the opportunity to go nuclear, perhaps with this recent exchange in mind
and his lack of support indicated in polls. It turns out that no other
candidates graced the event so he turned it into questioning and answering, and
someone asked him how he differed from Vitter. His answer: “I have not
frequented prostitution, especially not while on the floor of the U.S.
Congress.”
What Dardenne made allusion to was
Vitter’s 2007 statement, as it appeared that information would be leaked to the
public about an investigation into a prostitution ring and that a phone number
connected to the freshman senator could be part of it, that he had committed a “serious
sin,” and then never addressed the matter again. Note that Vitter never
admitted that he had engaged in such behavior, nor was he charged ever criminally
for doing so.
Nevertheless, from his statement
and lack of protestation at the suggestion when made repeatedly subsequently,
we can infer that Vitter did seek out such illegal services (and some
investigative reporting corroborates this). However, Dardenne cannot claim that
he knows Vitter “frequented” these on the floor of the House or Senate; there
is no evidence to back that up. Yet by saying this, perhaps he hopes he can
create the impression that this was the case.
Except that he’s five years too
late. The issue acted as a central theme to former Rep. Charlie Melancon’s
attempt to unseat Vitter in 2010. Much as Dardenne is trying to do now,
Melancon tried to raise questions about Vitter’s ethics and character early
and often in that campaign. That approach awarded him a blowout defeat by more
than 20 points.
Vitter annihilated his challenger because
his campaign stuck to the incumbent’s strength, the issues. Simply, Vitter has
found himself very often on the right side of the state’s majority when it
comes to these preferences, and his outsider, maverick personage as a legislator
appeals to the escalating disenchantment the public has with politicians seen
as too comfortable with keeping government size and power as is, currently
reflected in that three
leading candidates for the Republican presidential nomination haven’t spent a
day in government, while another is seen as a slightly-westerly, Hispanic
version of Vitter ideologically and as far as his relationship to the Senate
leadership.
His last Senate election, in
effect, inoculated him from the impact of his revelation, precisely because the
majority of the electorate understood that whatever battle he raged within
himself to overcome his personal weaknesses – and there’s zero evidence that Vitter
has backslide on this – it did not interfere with his performance in office, a performance
in terms of issues it applauded. Almost all who have indicated to date they
would vote for him likely know about the incident, so Dardenne’s reminder won’t
shake them. The only voters who see this of such overwhelming importance is the
Angry Left, and they already have their candidate in the suit-wearing demagogue
Edwards. This tactic wins Dardenne or anybody else few votes.
So it becomes a sign of Dardenne’s
desperation that he would throw it out there. It won’t be the last time, and he
won’t be the only one to do so, but the people have shown it won’t work. Therefore,
that he did shows his situation is so precarious that he realizes he must try anything,
no matter how farfetched its chances of success, to turn around his struggling
campaign.
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