Maginnis notes
that while polling data in Louisiana, from the Democrat-aligned firm Public
Policy Polling, conducted toward the end of that period showed by 47-32 percent
respondents were less likely to want to vote for GOP Senate candidate Rep. Bill Cassidy and gave incumbent Democrat
Sen. Mary Landrieu a 48-41 lead,
data from the Republican-oriented firm Harper Polling revealed
Landrieu led only 46-44 and 45 percent said they would vote for a Republican
for Senate while just 41 percent for a Democrat. This poll, however, was
conducted just before Oct. 1.
Interestingly, the PPP
numbers actually improved for Cassidy from the middle of August, when he
was supposedly down to Landrieu by 10 points and he gained a point in projected
vote. Further, the latest still showed Landrieu could not crack 50 percent
approval among voters; historically, incumbents who cannot do this a year from
an election almost always end up losing. And this was with Cassidy rated
unknown by 55 percent of voters and the 45 percent who ventured a likeability
rating on Cassidy about split; typically, as quality challengers become better
known, they gain proportionally more in liking than disliking among voters, to
the detriment of the incumbent’s vote share.
Actually, when reviewing the
demographics of the August PPP poll and September Harper poll (PPP has not
publicly released its October internal numbers), they come out pretty much the
same. There’s really only one difference between the two: PPP surveys
registered voters, while Harper surveys likely voters. And that’s why in a
midterm election the PPP numbers must be viewed more skeptically.
While Harper was not formed until
2012, PPP had a middling-to-bad record in 2010 final projections (using an
accuracy model developed by veteran political scientist pollsters). Middling
because overall it was in the middle of the
pack aggregating all contests, but bad especially in
Senate contests where it missed several contests outside of the 5 percent
margin of error. This can be attributed directly to its sampling model because
in midterm elections, and especially so in 2010, disproportionately the high information,
high interest voters show up and this is
better reflected in sampling of likely voters as opposed to registered voters.
PPP actually did well in 2012
precisely because in that contest disproportionately the low information, low interest
voters turned out compared not just to midterm elections, but to all federal
elections. Indeed, for the first time in presidential
election history, blacks voted at a higher rate than whites, with the
former group jacked about having self-identifying black Pres. Barack Obama
on the ballot, and the latter somewhat discouraged to see a candidate not
entirely willing or able to provide a choice rather than an echo to Obama,
former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Keep in mind that blacks
as a whole demonstrate significantly less knowledge about politics and knowledgeable
individuals are more likely to turn out to vote than those with less knowledge
about politics, particularly in an environment of lower election salience (such
as midterm elections with no presidential contest at the top of the ballot).
But PPP’s accuracy will suffer
again in 2014 if it continues to use a model better suited for 2012 than 2010
in its polling, as it appears to be doing. Thus, its projections about the
Louisiana Senate race will appear consistently over-optimistic for Landrieu,
especially considering how troubling are the other internal numbers that
overall make her no better than even money to win again.
And, the arcane aside, even more
likely to have Cassidy emerge as the favorite over the next few months is that
the shutdown issue, regardless of who gets blame if any, will be on no one’s
mind by the end of the year, and will not be for the election no matter how
many times it reappears over the next year, because the only people who really
even care about it are die-hard partisans who will not vote for the other party’s
candidate anyway. But the issue that will move independents and weak partisans
will be like herpes to Democrats: the gift that keeps on giving known as
Obamacare.
Lost in Democrats’ feeble
explanations about technology shortcomings and the fanciful hope that if
somehow those issues get fixed that all will be well for the wholly-owned
Democrat policy is a blindness to the fact that infrastructure woes serve as a
metaphor for and extension of the rottenness of the entire idea. It’s so
complicated because Obamacare is universal health care, possessing all of the
agonies it brings in terms of higher costs with worse outcomes, with a human
mask on it to make it seem decent. It entrapped the private sector to provide
this product with the public as forced consumers to obscure the heavy hand of
government in this and placed as much emphasis on redistribution of wealth as
it did on care provision, with naked favoritism towards favored political
constituencies while it flipped the bird at everybody else – and it’s not even
universal by far. It’s no wonder designing a web platform to reflect these
meandering goals that made care provision secondary demands such complexity.
And this will be in the news day
after day for the rest of the election cycle, only just beginning with the technical
glitches. As 2014 unfolds, horror stories will resonate daily across the country
and in Louisiana, as a result of Obamacare people losing insurance, paying much
more for health care, and being unable to see doctors or have procedures
scheduled in timely fashion, which only will snowball as the year passes by.
And it will be the easiest thing for Cassidy to demand accountability from
Landrieu for being the crucial vote to have let it all happen.
As a medical doctor with
extensive public hospital experience and no shortage of campaign funds, Cassidy
will be in excellent position to campaign to prevent Landrieu from protecting herself
from the building explosion. Were it a presidential election year, she might
get extra low information, low interest voters to act as sandbags against the
electoral wave that, if Cassidy knows what he’s doing, that will build against
her. But it isn’t, and that makes her exceptionally vulnerable.
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