Senate race varies big by whichever female runs

It’s now certain that a prominent female politician will enter Louisiana’s Senate contest held next year. But which one makes a big difference.

For months, rumors have circulated that Republican Rep. Julia Letlow will join the fray. She apparently has been courted by GOP Gov. Jeff Landry, who doesn’t seem jacked with the current field. Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy likely signed his own political death warrant when he gambled on GOP Pres. Donald Trump losing massive influence among Republicans and voted for Trump’s impeachment and conviction on spurious charges, a mistake in Louisiana especially when Landry, who has political ties to Trump and his family, assumed the governorship three years later.

But neither does Landry seem to like as alternatives Republicans Treas. John Fleming and state Sen. Blake Miguez, who have feuded with Landry on some issues. For whatever reason, the entrance of GOP Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta after them hasn’t discouraged Landry from encouraging Letlow to run.

However, if she doesn’t, Letlow ally GOP state Rep. Julie Emerson has said she will jump in. Emerson has risen in prominence in the House, now the chairwoman of one of the most important committees in the chamber and sponsor of significant fiscal reform measures championed by Landry, some of which have become law, some of which tried to amend the Constitution but voters rejected, and some pending amendments. She also authored the bill that became law creating the current semi-closed primary system that has the several Republican vying for the nomination. She has a good working relationship with Landry and well may garner his support should Letlow pass on the chance.

Yet the two, even as their records in office display a huge amount of congruency, would have very different impacts on the contest. Even though Letlow hasn’t run statewide before, she might as well have run in a large portion of it. Her Fifth District, because of its gerrymandered qualities, sprawls through northeast Louisiana, some of the state’s central region, the Florida Parishes, and nips into the Capitol region. The media markets involve about half of the state’s population, eating into the advantage of the only statewide-elected candidate currently in the race, Fleming, as well as would compete against Fleming for support north of Interstate 10.

This location is of significance. When Fleming won in 2023, he was the first north Louisiana candidate to win a state single executive office in over four decades. Democrat former Sen. J. Bennett Johnston was the last senator to come from the north, but before his 1972 election it had been a quarter century since a north Louisianan, Democrat John Overton, had served in the Senate.

In short, if Fleming remains the only major candidate from north Louisiana on the ballot, he has a leg up in support to make a runoff, likely against Cassidy. But if Letlow enters the field, this would damage Fleming’s chances, as this would split the regional vote that almost always isn’t enough to carry one if its favorite sons to victory.

Letlow also has the advantage of Washington contacts on which to draw support. Cassidy has raised to date the vast bulk of his nearing eight figures campaign funds from outside the state and mainly from political action committees. Letlow also can tap into these sources, with some of those donating to Cassidy additionally giving to her to cover all the bases.

By contrast, Emerson would enter the field the least known of the major GOP contenders because of the relatively small size of her House district, although she would have additional name recognition around the Lafayette area. Nor does she have the capacity that Miguez, Skrmetta, and especially Fleming have to self-finance their campaigns. If Landry turns to her as his option, she would get a boost from Landry allies directing funds in her direction, but it’s questionable whether that could be enough.

In short, Letlow would become a favorite to win the nomination – according to a hypothetical matchup polled this spring, she would edge out Fleming to take on Cassidy in a runoff and then handily defeat him – if she entered, while Emerson would have to make up ground.