Kennedy’s choice means the
gubernatorial field, a spot for which he considered running, is close to being
final as far as meaningful candidates go. Of them, Republican Sen. David Vitter gained the most with
Kennedy’s deferral, as both have a populist appeal to the electorate, and
solidifies his status as favorite. Still, this field could change if Democrats
split among themselves and put up another candidate other than state Rep. John Bel Edwards. Especially if
a quality black candidate were to enter it, this would likely assure a general
election runoff of Vitter with either Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne or Public Service
Commissioner Scott Angelle, both
Republicans, thereby decreasing Vitter’s chances of victory. It all depends
upon whether Democrats want to hang onto the slim chance that Edwards could
prevail in the runoff that he has a great chance of making if the only quality
Democrat in the contest, or if they want to throw in the towel and have the
chance to pick from among the least objectionable (to them) of Republican
candidates in a runoff.
Additionally, the decision by
Kennedy basically settled the attorney general competitors, the other office he
considered, with only incumbent Atty. Gen. Buddy Caldwell and former Rep. Jeff Landry so far as quality
candidates, to both of the Republicans’ relief. Kennedy probably would have made
a runoff with one of them and might have been the favorite in that against
either. With no sign of a competitive Democrat probable to enter the fray, this
configuration lends itself to a tossup at this time, with the majority of
Republicans pulling for Landry and Democrats having to settle for their former
co-partisan Caldwell.
These competitive contests will
join with the lieutenant
governor’s race to comprise those where the outcomes seem in doubt. Kennedy’s
fourth reelection attempt should see him hardly breaking a sweat, and Secretary
of State Tom
Schedler, Commissioner of Insurance Jim Donelon, and
Agriculture and Forestry Secretary Mike Strain, all
Republicans, should experience relatively easy paths to reelection.
In the final analysis, passing on
the governor’s race for Kennedy made sense with Vitter already stealing some of
his thunder and other well-funded quality candidates there that could squeeze
him out, making that the path of most resistance. And making a play for
attorney general at best was a lateral move, so it did not make much sense to
give up his sure thing as treasurer for that.
Plus, with at the end of last year
a healthy $3.5 million in his state campaign account and running for reelection
that will attract weak, if any, opponents, he won’t have to dip much into that
and could use it for a run for the Senate in 2016, if Vitter wins this year and
thereby must vacate the seat. This scenario gives Kennedy a considerable leg up
in financing against a field unlikely to have won an election statewide, much less
five times as he likely will have by then. Should Vitter fail to prevail, or
Kennedy comes up short in a crack at the Senate, going out of politics as treasurer
is anything but a bad consolation prize.
In this light, his selection makes
all the sense in the world, and essentially closes the book on the structures
of the statewide competitions this fall with the possible exception of that for
governor. About half a year away, speculation of who wins what now begins in
earnest.
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