That guy, Rep. Vance McAlllister, leads in the
only independent poll
(if its producer is skeptical of McAllister) to date taken on the contest, but
with an incredibly underwhelming 27 percent. Not far behind him at 21 percent
comes Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo,
who ran in the special election against McAllister last time but whom
McAllister aced out of the runoff as Mayo performed in underwhelming fashion,
getting just 15 percent of the vote in a district where black Democrats (Mayo
is black) comprise 26 percent of the electorate (another black candidate then
got 3 percent of the vote).
However, they are going in
opposite directions. Given that Mayo looks to be not only the only prominent
black candidate in the contest but also the sole prominent Democrat, the
smattering of non-black liberals in the district could boost his total in the
general election above 30 percent. He’ll be almost a sure thing for the general
election runoff.
By contrast, McAllister probably
has peaked and likely will go downhill from here. Damaged first by revelations
of marital infidelity, then by declaring he would not run again in order to
repair the injury to his marriage and family only to double back on that within
three months by saying his family told him everything was hunky-dory for him to
continue, he is seen by many variously or in combination as a charlatan,
hypocrite, lacking in good judgment, and/or more interested in power than
anything else. While some who say they support him will stay with him unless the
next time it’s not a live girl but either a live boy or dead girl, others have
picked him only because of name recognition (the poll forced a choice, leaving
no undecided answers) and/or have not learned enough about Republican
alternatives.
Republican activists hope that is
the case. He’s bucked conservatives on a few issues, and the last thing they
want is an irritant like him to survive at the expense of a genuine, reliable
conservative. The question is how many non-black liberals in the district will
sacrifice the slim chance Mayo has of winning – counting on conservative
disgust with McAllister who they hope to draw in a runoff matchup with Mayo that
will give the latter victory (the poll said 36 percent would vote against the
former definitely in a runoff and 29 percent said they might) – over the half
loaf of getting the least objectionable McAllister in a runoff with a
conservative Republican opponent where it’s a tossup, to see how much erosion
ends up harming the incumbent.
But for Republicans to prevent
this latter scenario, there has to emerge a candidate capable of acing
McAllister out of the runoff (or perhaps Mayo if liberals try the strategic
loss-cutting strategy). This poll and fundraising information from the
candidates (which shows McAllister has almost no funds on hand and Mayo with
none yet) leads to some interesting possibilities.
Businessman Harris Brown, who has held
minor appointive office, lags the field at 6 percent despite having raised the
most money and apparently has the most “establishment” support (besides being
related to another primary loser previous, state Rep. Jay Morris, he
also has drawn support from several prominent past politicians of the area and
includes a relative by marriage to Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu). From
Alexandria, former Grant Parish District Attorney and longtime conservative
activist Ed Tarpley has raised
relatively little money and drew 9 percent.
At 14 percent was political
neophyte and salesman Zach
Dasher, related to the popular culture favorite Robertson family (who had
backed McAllister in the special election) who has raised almost as much as
Brown from a relatively narrow circle of donors (not surprisingly, many of them
from the Robertson clan). Yet most intriguingly, having only raised a little
over $100,000, or about half of Brown’s total, with most from the rural parts
of the district, getting 18 percent was Dr. Ralph Abraham, who not only comes off
as the most ideologically conservative and least establishmentarian of the bunch,
but who also has decades of military and community service in the area under
his belt. The remaining 5 percent went to a Libertarian candidate.
With his resources, Tarpley
doesn’t have much room to grow outside of Alexandria. Brown’s support is in
Monroe and has the resources to grow, but his lackluster poll numbers question
whether he can multiply enough support. Dasher’s appeal at this point is not
broad enough so the question there is if he can use his resources to get beyond
what some see as a creature of a politically-active family. Given his early
start that has awarded him the largest base at present and that, again, it is
likely that McAllister’s support disproportionately is soft, Abraham may have
the best shot to make it to the runoff of the conservative Republican
challengers.
As previously noted
in this space,
if all of these active candidates do qualify, unless one of these challengers
can separate from the others, the nightmare scenario for Republicans might come
to pass.
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