Subtract the results of the Second Congressional District, and it is
possible that the votes for Libertarian and no party candidates in all of the
other U.S. House contests will exceed those cast for Democrats across the rest
of Louisiana, belying the notion that state Democrats are anywhere near a
sustained and successful rebuilding effort.
The final
qualifying statistics registered Republicans having one or more candidates
in all six districts, in five of which they are favored overwhelmingly,
Libertarians contesting all but the First, and Democrats competing in just
three, and in the Second their Rep. Cedric
Richmond is the heavy reelection favorite. Besides those dismal statistics
for the state’s former majority party, some others compound recognition of its
plight.
By the numbers, the most competitive district for the party outside of
the Second was supposed to be the Fourth. Instead, Republican Rep. John Fleming gets the closest thing running
to a free ride in the state this cycle with only a Libertarian opposing him.
Perhaps the next most vulnerable for the GOP was the Fifth, but Republican Rep.
Rodney Alexander almost got off
as easily, also facing a Libertarian and a no party contestant who has run for
office before and has been treated by voters as a crank.
Maybe worst of all, a Democrat emerged, embraced by the state party, in
the Third District with the two current incumbents from the old districting, Republican
Reps. Charles Boustany and Jeff Landry. Conventional wisdom
has been the conservative Boustany was favored over the very conservative
Landry because without a competitive Democrat in the race liberal voters would have
to find their way eventually to Boustany. But if attorney Ron Richard, as it
appears he has the capacity to do, can roll a lot of resources into the campaign,
he can become competitive enough to make the runoff, and likely at Boustany’s
expense. Hence, a Democrat appeared in the one place where that might actually
turn out to have a negative impact in terms of policy-making for their agenda,
while being unable to field candidates in places that only could have brought
them benefits, if even just by forcing the Republican incumbents to use
resources. This does not indicate a party on the rise by any means.
About the only worse outcome for the party would be to have Richmond forced
into a general election runoff and spend down resources. Given that the Second
attracted to run him, a white Democrat, two black Republicans, and a
Libertarian, that dispersion might have been sufficient to think that the Republicans
might pick off some black Democrats and the white Democrat enough white
Democrats to force a runoff, but since the white Democrat in question Gary
Landrieu, who despite being part of the Landrieu political family has been
drubbed convincingly in past electoral attempts, Richmond likely can win in the
regular general election.
Yet except for Richmond, all of the party’s contenders are placeholders
who cannot expected to have much, if any, political careers to the extent that they
can defeat Republicans at any level in any district that is not solidly Democrat
already – a necessary prerequisite for the party to pull out of its electoral doldrums.
Nor do any of the Democrats running for the only other high-profile contests of
the fall at the state level – an open Supreme Court spot and for a Public
Service Commission seat – look like they can win the same. In fact, unless at
least one major upset occurs, Democrats will take a step back – Supreme Court Justice
John Weimer, who had been
a Democrat, filed unopposed to run as an independent this time.
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