As
speculated, what if the impending sale of Baton Rouge’s Shaw Group frees the
inner politician of its founder and former chairman of Louisiana’s Democrats’
Jim Bernhard? For one presumed future gubernatorial aspirant and the new party
leadership it comes as most unwelcome news.
Bernhard will make at least $55 million off the deal if it goes through
as planned, retiring at its consummation, even a portion of which would make
him more than competitive in any political contest in the state. Some believe
he might get an early start and run for his area’s Public Service Commission
open seat. Businessman Ed Roy and state Rep. Erich Ponti, both Republicans, have announced
their intentions to contest the seat for which qualifying beings in two weeks.
The thought is that Bernhard, who ran a Fortune 500 company whose
products were subject to PSC regulation, would be seen as a natural fit for
voters in a contest that downplays ideology that could offset his Democrat
affiliation. That kind of contest also could mute statements from his brief
past experience overseeing state Democrats, where his lack of political
experience showed with so many articulated
illusions about what both major parties represented – if he chooses to run and
as a Democrat; he was a self-proclaimed independent prior to switching
apparently at the behest of friend former Gov. Kathleen Blanco.
Provided that he does continue to throw in his lot with the state’s
minority party, the thinking is that a couple of years of PSC service would
remove the lightweight aura and obviate the recent past dismal political showings
of (in particular one)
wealthy candidates for statewide office without prior elective experience. Yet
the move carries risk. With only 19 percent of the district having had registered
black voters at the time it was redistricted into being, he doesn’t have much
of a base, and for less-involved voters candidate’s party identification will
mean everything in this contest where there will be a disproportionate number of
them, working against any Democrat. With national elections dominating the
ballot, it’s no certainty he could even make the general election runoff, where
then more-involved voters disproportionately would show up, which tends to work
against the turnout characteristics of his base.
Losing this relatively minor contest would impair considerably any
future political career and also demographics actually work out better for him running
at the statewide level, with almost a third of all registered voters being
black creating a base that almost would assure him of a runoff spot. Then the
question becomes whether he can peel off the approximately one quarter of the
white vote needed to win. He only could do so by presenting the same
unsystematic moderate face as he appeared to support during his months as party
chairman.
Even if he does run to the right, more likely than not that won’t be
enough to defeat a conservative Republican candidate. The fact is, the Democrat
label is at an all-time low in the state and the current
party leadership seems bound to continue that trend, which will scare away
too many moderate conservatives to come out on top (unless he comes off as a
GOP clone, but then voting majorities will think to go with the genuine article).
However, his presence in the contest may have a big impact on who ends up
getting elected.
Using as examples of some thought to be interested in the job when Gov.
Bobby
Jindal hits his term limit, populists on the right may like state Treasurer
John
Kennedy, conservatives may gravitate towards state Agriculture Commissioner
Mike
Strain, and moderate conservatives could go for Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne. Throw
in Bernhard striving to the center, and clearly he slices off the most votes
from Dardenne, probably putting one of the more conservative Republicans into a
runoff against him and therefore making that GOP survivor the next governor.
For this reason, expect the state party apparatus, now comprised of
officers much further to the left than Bernhard has indicated in the past he
would be, at best to feel lukewarm about his candidacy. Unless they are willing
to put power above ideology and feel he has a decent shot of winning, to them
his place in the race increases the chances of a more conservative GOP winner
emerging than if they (tacitly) support the Republican closest to the center.
Otherwise, they might go to the lengths of finding a very liberal sacrificial
lamb (which also might serve the purpose of giving more representation to
blacks in the party, now its majority, by running a prominent black politician)
in order to siphon votes from Bernhard that he would get absent a credible leftist
candidate, thereby keeping him out of a runoff and giving them a chance to
rally around Dardenne.
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