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GOP LA caucus results point to Romney benefitting

Just as at the national political level there are attempts to define victory in Iraq in a way to withdraw U.S. forces without actual victory in place, here in Louisiana a battle rages to declare victory for Republican candidates in the party’s recently-conducted caucuses.

As far as any one candidate goes, the edge seems to be held by Sen. John McCain, a situation trumpeted by a pro-McCain news aggregator website. But in real terms, the victory likely will go to former Gov. Mitt Romney – but “likely” for now for two reasons.

One is that the actual winner – both plurality and majority – of the delegates statewide appears to have been an uncommitted slate termed the “Pro-life/Pro-family” delegation. They seem to have captured a smashing 86 of the 105 slots, while the McCain slate looks to have gotten fewer than 10. (These numbers might change a little as the party is still verifying provisional ballots.) Given these candidate's records of the issues the uncommitted delegates signal are important ot them, it would appear that the bulk of the uncommitted delegates will swing Romney’s way if given that chance, in addition to the handful of Romney delegates by name winning.

The other reason it's not set in stone is because Louisiana Republicans can moot this. The week after the Feb. 9 caucuses comes the state convention where the actual delegates to attend the national convention will be selected. If state GOP voters give any candidate an absolute majority, that candidate gets pledged to him all of the convention delegates apportioned in this manner – 20 delegates. If no candidate does, these and 24 other delegates are up for grabs on Feb. 16. It seems unlikely any candidate will win an absolute majority.

While inexact at to claim to know the intent of all the uncommitted delegates, probably enough of them backing Romney will control the convention to decide who gets 44 of the GOP's 47 available. Thus, claims that McCain had the best outcome of all candidates running ring very hollow.


Anonymous said...

The Ron Paul organization is the only organization in Louisiana that is actually campaigning. I see cars with bumper stickers and plenty of signs in Ascension and East Baton Rouge parish. The college students at LSU are especially active in the Ron Paul campaign. I think some of the pro-life and pro-family delegates are for Ron Paul too!

1mansopinion said...

I believe "Anonymous" might have been at the Caucus on Tuesday night. There were Ron Paul "Revolutionaries" everywhere. In fact, has a piece on its front page making mention fo the fact.

Anonymous said...

The Ron Paul Campaign is over. Let's all please move on and support the GOP nominee for President, Mitt Romney. Romney now has a 6 point lead in Florida and is seen as the most electable Republican nationally according to Rasmussen (76%). LA Republicans need to stop looking like kooks (think Buchanan in '96) and get on board with reality!

Anonymous said...

The Tuesday cauci were a chaotic, bad joke. The Paulies, out in force, were arrogant and rude beyond belief. Some, however, managed to skunk the riggers of Pro-Life slates and sneaked onto those ballots. Snicker…

The Pro-Life slates were supposed to be stacked with people who will do whatever National Committeeman Ross Little demands. He’s such a disaster. Rhett Davis, Little’s good buddy, was Fred Thompson’s Louisiana consultant, so the Pro-Lifers, initially, were quiet Fredheads. Once Thompson bailed, they became mum Hucksters. Now that Huck is going broke and isn’t doing so well, who knows whom they will support, under radar? Logic might dictate that they support Romney, but I seriously doubt they will do it. He is Mormon, after all. Eeuw. Far better to be irrelevant, I suppose.

I, on the other hand, lost my bid to be a delegate to the LAGOP Convention and, yesterday, voted early… for Mitt Romney.

1mansopinion said...

My condolences. Perhaps in 2012, you'll have your opportunity.

The important issue, to me, is that we get a clear conservative voice. Romney does, in fact, represent that. I, too, was a Fredhead, so, what matters most to me now is principles. I think we've got opportunities to make some noise in this race yet. If only we could vote for Reagan again...

Kevin said...

Actually, I also ran for delegate and had close ties to the Pro-Life slate, though I was not actually listed on it. I ended up "endorsing" the slate so to speak, realizing without being on a slate I stood very little chance of winning.
Indeed I was a Thompson supporter, as I believe many actually were on the slate. I can tell you now however, that I never became a mum-Huckster, and am in fact a leaning-Romney-supporter.
My understanding is that the Pro-Life slate's main concerns are choosing a candidate that is a) Pro-Life, b) Pro-Family (traditional) and c) Conservative. Neither Huckabee nor certainly McCain completely fit that bill. Romney may have question marks in his past, but if you take all of the candidates at their word, then he is the only remaining candidate that currently fits all 3 criteria.

As to McCain winning the most delegates out of those who were "committed", that may in and of itself be a farce. I can only speak for District 7, but 8 of the 15 delegates on McCain's slate here were duplicates from the Pro-Life slate. My understanding (as in from the horse's mouth) is that most if not all of the "duplicated" delegates on McCain's slate here, were placed on it without permission. McCain's people could not even fill HALF a slate of delegates in District 7. They took names from the Pro-Life slate (probably realizing it would win) to fill their empty slots. Now, they (along with the state party) are counting those delegates as "wins" for them.