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22.8.06

Shreveport mayor's poll tells little now, maybe more later

The Shreveport Times commissioned an exit poll concerning the city’s mayor’s race and it tells us … really nothing.

That’s perhaps a bit terse. Actually, it does tell us a few things. It says that state Sen. Max Malone has a long hill to climb to get himself into City Plaza – not impossible, but such a late start is not going to make it easy for it. It also reveals that Liz Swaine, relatively speaking, is doing stronger-than-expected – but probably some of the choices of her are a reflection of residual name-recognition from her television anchorwoman past rather than a genuine commitment to vote, meaning her overall strength is overstated because some of her supporters now will turn out the be unreliable later (and with such a high name recognition, she doesn’t have much upside).

But the utility of this poll is doubtful because barely half of the polled electorate even professes a choice, unusual in a situation where the campaign has been going on for months with only fifty-odd days out from the contest. This should be most worrisome to state Rep. Cedric Glover, who barely polls above his presumed closest competitor for votes, retired television executive Ed Bradley, and who trails Swaine. Somebody who would be expected to roll up more than half of the black vote at a minimum should be expected to have higher figures barely a month before the election.

However, all in all, the poll leaves us with far more questions than it can answer. Are Swaine’s totals firm? Are Malone’s a reflection of his late entry or that former city attorney Jerry Jones has done a solid job of building committed support among a significant number of voters that could carry him into a general election runoff? Can Bradley broaden his base beyond a few white liberals and angrier black supporters, indicated as a possibility given Glover’s relative weakness? Could a poll also-ran like city director of economic development Arlena Acree, with so much of the vote still outstanding, take advantage of the large proportion of undecided voters to disproportionately improve her standing?

(Tentative answers in reverse order are: (1) Acree has a lot of room to move up with the favorable ratings she has, but whether she can trigger this is another matter, (2) Bradley’s upside with his ratings looks pretty limited, while Glover does has some room to move up, and (3) with so many saying they don’t know of Malone, expect a dramatic rise in his fortunes if he can make himself know which, again, is a problem given his late entry – but forget about the absolutely inane comment about Malone’s placement that “He's got a very incendiary rhetoric. Those who will vote for him don't want that to be known,” because it’s the lack of name recognition, not undercounting, driving his total as of now.)

With 34 percent of the vote still unpledged, so much still could happen. That’s the real message this poll gives us.

3 comments:

PEARRL said...

Come on people! Don't be ignorant! EVERY major player in the mayoral race is conducting polls.

This mornings poll in the paper was so one sided toward Liz that it's being laughed at all over Shreveport. Who in their right mind would believe Liz is polling higher among blacks than Cedric...HA! Of course, keep in mind that Elliot (Idiot) Stonecipher has been hire by Channel 3 for years as their political consultant. Of course...where did Liz work before becoming a Hightower clone?
You’re smart enough to figure this out aren't you?

I will say I believe the poll this morning was accurate as far as the other candidates, however, Jones’s number was way to low and Swaine's was way too high. But this is how you sway voters...perception is everything in politics!

For instance, Gus Majalis hired Kennedy (for LIZ) out of Pensacola to do a poll and was so disgruntled about how bad Liz was showing, told them not to release the results!

Anonymous said...

shreveport mayoral poll was a joke. If you beleive liz swaine is polling 15 percenet of the black vote with no visisble black supporters in her camp. this is propoganda.

Elliot Stonecipher is a kook and why would the shreveport times hire such a unreparable pollster.

Cedric glover is a big looser. for months he has hinged his candidacy on he had the black vote locked up and tied in a dead heat with ed bradley.

Truth is as a two-time elected city councilman and twice elected state rep in a majority black city, he should have been leading the poll. those footsteps he hears is ed bradley

Jeff Sadow said...

I've always suspected a good chunk of my readers were on top of things, and these comments appear to prove it. At least that was what I concluded when I read the pollster's comments about some of the things not reported in the initial article, and in turn I jotted down some of my own. You can see all of these at:

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060823/ELECTION/608230316