Most, maybe all, LA amendments likely to pass

Despite the contrary musings of some, expect most, perhaps even all, constitutional amendments plastered on Louisiana’s ballot next month to pass voter muster.

Some questions about the chances of the 10 amendments up for vetting have come given that the last two elections featuring these saw every single one go down to defeat. While some speculation centered on whether this signaled a referendum of sorts on state government and its elected officials, more valid explanations focused on idiosyncratic reasons and, most importantly, the timing. Both factors will matter more favorably for the set that voters face this time.

Regardless of the often minimal attention most voters pay to these, content does matter. Many of the items of the past two years called for ambitious overhauls of the Constitution, especially in the area of state fiscal affairs. These are the measures that most optimally compel the voter with only a passing interest to turn out – and disproportionally negatively so, with the state’s long history of lukewarm or worse budgetary management. Compound that with the special interests that would lose out under new arrangements aggressively campaigning against these, and it’s a tough road to hoe.

But perhaps even more importantly, overall turnout matters. That’s as with strong Republican sympathies in the overall electorate and the state’s history of populism that means the electorate disproportionately responds to personalistic factors in any election, when an election occurs with a strong Republican candidate topping the ballot, the marginal voter attracted to turn out in this environment disproportionately is a Republican who, with the GOP in charge of the Legislature for many years that more often than not will put up amendments that jibe with Republican voters’ reformist instincts, will approve of these.

Except when amendments don’t. More amendments in 2022 failed that passed, in part because some were wretched, even with a turnout approaching 47 percent. The next year, even with only around 36 percent turnout attached to the gubernatorial race, all measures passed mostly with ease. Back then, the lower relative turnout didn’t hurt because Republicans kept up their end of the bargain in response to a high-stimulus contest but Democrats, having lackluster candidates statewide with poor odds, disproportionately stayed home. And then in the following year, with the most popular GOP presidential candidate in decades, turnout zoomed to about two-thirds of the electorate and all measures passed easily.

The last two years featured considerably lower turnout, in the spring of 2025 of below 22 percent and this spring of 28 percent. These the first two spring elections with amendments in well over 30 years that depressed turnout for that seasonal reason, last year’s had no topline contest, while this year’s did have Senate primary elections statewide (explaining the small increase). Still, these dynamics don’t draw out more marginal voters that would be more likely to approve amendments that, unlike much of the 2022 batch, aren’t blatantly introducing defective policy.

 Although not that competitive, this upcoming Senate contest looks to be more competitive than the last one in 2022, which on the surface would favor greater Republican turnout and thus amendment passages. Unknown, however, is the impact the Senate nomination battle will have and whether it alienated some Republicans by not having their preferred candidate advance to the general election, leading them to desist. Assuming it doesn’t and with a turnout likely to exceed 2022 amendments’ passage, approval chances increase.

Again, though, content will matter. Four of these items essentially grant new/expanded tax breaks at the local level, which will make them popular. Another property tax also at the local level, very similar to the one rejected in 2022 but with more favorable titular wording, could pass this time. Three others deal with issues seen favorably by many voters but particularly among Republicans. Only two that are more technical and specific in nature won’t benefit more than a little from an increased disproportionate GOP-sympathetic voter turnout.

Understanding these dynamics makes for rejection of as many as a half of these a surprise. If more than that, then clearly a new dynamic unexpectedly will have emerged worthy of some study.