Competitive Caddo contests cued in runoffs

Somewhat surprising results in October Caddo Parish elections left some very competitive runoff contests on Nov. 18.

The sheriff’s race to replace retiring Republican Sheriff Steve Prator classifies as one of these – not surprising that it produced a runoff between Republican former Shreveport Councilor John Nickelson and Democrat former Shreveport police chief and chief administrative officer Henry Whitehorn, but surprising that Nickelson pulled 45 percent, 10 points clear of Whitehorn in a race on paper that favors the Democrat. A major factor here appears to be differentially reduced turnout between partisans, with Democrats more likely not to have voted. If that pattern repeats, and it may well given Prator and his considerable influence backed Nickleson, the general election leader will win.

However, this hot race may affect the dynamics of other contests in the parish, although few remain unsettled. While most parish commission races drew multiple candidates, only one had more than two. Incumbents and favorites held off challengers – including past District 8 Democrat appointed Commissioner Ronald Cothran, who ran in District 10 this time and barely knocked off two challenging Democrats, including one who barely lost four years ago – the only big surprise came with District 1 Republican Todd Hopkins losing to the GOP’s Chris Kracman in the race with the highest turnout. A gerrymander solidly favoring Democrats created almost no interparty competition, leaving only one contest not internecine and all settled without a runoff.

The other consequential race in the parish also headed to a runoff: assessor. With long-serving Democrat Charles Henington retiring, the contest drew current employee Democrat Kristin Gonzalez, recent employee Republican Brett Frazier, both of whom are white, and two black Democrats, accountant and previous House candidate Reginald Johnson and Southern University Shreveport professor Regina Webb.

Intriguing about this race was whether Gonzalez could capture enough vote from Democrats to pass both Johnson and Webb and meet Frazier in an expected runoff. She didn’t with Webb eking out a spot but well behind Frazier who captured 46 percent of the vote. No doubt Frazier’s long record of experience in the office helped, while Gonzalez’s may have been tarnished by an incident where a supporter of hers apparently conducted electioneering from the assessor’s office on her behalf. Although Democrats received 54 percent of the vote in the general election, dynamics suggest Frazier can peel off enough votes from Gonzalez supporters in particular to win against an opponent with no background in assessing property.

Both the sheriff’s and assessor’s races should be close. Just as close likely will be the two remaining legislative contests on the ballot. In others that included Caddo Parish (some overlapping with Bossier Parish discussed here), previous officeholders Thomas Pressly in Senate District 38, Danny McCormick in House District 1, Michael Melerine in House District 6, and Larry Bagley in House District 7 all cruised.

This left House District 3 and Senate District 39, both of which produced close contests among three and four candidates. In HD 3, Democrat Caddo Commissioner Lyndon Johnson found himself barely squeezed out (confirmed by a recount) by Democrat Caddo Parish School Board Member Jasmine Green, who herself barely trailed former candidate Democrat Joy Walters, who narrowly lost four years ago in a different district. Campaign finance reports suggest Walters is employing an aggressive ground- and web-based strategy, with Green sticking to mailouts. Green is a semi-incumbent which may be to her advantage, but Walters already has shown herself to be a good campaigner.

In SD 39, Democrat former state Rep. Barbara Norton with her past colorful career couldn’t keep up with current Democrat state Reps. Cedric Glover and Sam Jenkins. Having her divide the black vote almost cost Glover a shot at Jenkins, as the former barely outpaced perennial candidate Republican Jim Slagle, built upon the strength of the seven out of 92 precincts in Bossier Parish.

But Glover, who trailed Jenkins 34 to 26 percent, because of those GOP voters has a decent chance of surpassing Jenkins in the runoff. Both vote as doctrinaire liberal Democrats in the Legislature, but on some local issues Glover has bucked party leaders including issues that might attract Republicans, and he endorsed Shreveport Republican Mayor Tom Arceneaux in the 2022 mayoral campaign against retiring SD 39 Democrat state Sen. Greg Tarver, whose controversial career makes a portion of both Republican and Democrats in the electorate wary and who has endorsed Jenkins.

Jenkins vastly has outspent Glover and has support from state and local Democrat activists, aside from a few on the outs with the party who back Glover. But if Glover can pick up most of Slagle’s vote and a decent chunk of Norton’s – she was no fan of Tarver’s having run against him in 2019 only to be disqualified – he could win.