Race less relevant in north LA mayor elections

It began in Monroe in 2020 and by the end of 2022 all four of north Louisiana’s major cities will have white mayors, mostly new and not Democrats among cities mostly with black Democrat-majority electorates, challenging existing notions about what candidates can win where.

This remarkable development north of Interstates 10/12 started with the election of independent Friday Ellis in Monroe, knocking off longtime black incumbent Democrat Mayor Jamie Mayo. Then, Monroe’s electorate contained 63 percent Democrats and 55 percent black Democrats.

In 2021, in Bossier City Republican Tommy Chandler beat GOP Mayor Lo Walker, who had been in office or served as city chief administrative officer for 32 years, Then, the electorate was about 80 percent white and over half Republican.

This fall, first Alexandria saw white Democrat former mayor Jacques Roy reclaim his spot over black incumbent Democrat Mayor Jeff Hall. The city has a black electorate comprising 65 percent and black Democrats make up 38 percent of those registered.

Then this past weekend Republican Tom Arceneaux, after having taken down in the general election black Democrat incumbent Mayor Adrian Perkins, dispatched in the runoff black democrat state Sen. Greg Tarver. This city’s electorate is 54 percent black and 41 percent of it is black Democrats.

To restate: (1) in all four, a challenger defeated an incumbent; (2) three of four are majority black, yet all have white mayors; and (3) three of four have a plurality of black Democrats, yet three of four elected white non-Democrats. Some commonalities exist among the four.

All four incumbents courted controversy. Mayo had made divisive race-related gestures and seemed increasingly aloof as he approached two decades in office. Walker bid for a fifth term that would have taken him into his nineties while cooperating with the City Council in running up a huge debt without tax relief. Hall feuded with the City Council and police. Perkins took a number of ethics missteps and made several policy goofs. For good measure in Shreveport, Tarver with nearly four decades in area elected offices created many enemies even among black Democrats.

Monroe and Bossier City looked to political rookies to replace entrenched incumbents, and in Shreveport Arceneaux hadn’t served in or run for elected office for 32 years so fresh faces seemed desired. Yet Alexandria went in the opposite direction, bringing back Roy who had spent a dozen well-received years in that office before voluntarily opting out four years ago.

Until Ellis’ surprise win, conventional wisdom had been that almost all blacks vote for quality black Democrats, so a white couldn’t win, much less a Republican in a majority black city. Then came Roy’s win followed by the biggest shocker of all, Arceneaux’s triumph.

Republicans particularly can draw lessons from these contests. In electoral environments which emphasize basic services such as public safety, street maintenance, and water and sewerage provision that deemphasize ideological cleavages rippling from national and state issues, even in large jurisdictions with black majorities such as populous cities when a black Democrat has a contentious term and/or history in elective office, especially when the resulting negative perceptions cross racial lines, a white candidate – even a Republican – can win when electoral maneuvering puts that candidate as the main alternative to the other.

North Louisiana has shown itself as a laboratory demonstrating this. The next question is whether and under what conditions these white mayors, mostly political novices, can stay in office.