Edwards one loser after Shreveport elections

Shreveport city elections provided a bumper crop of winners and losers, besides the obvious mayoral victor Republican Tom Arceneaux and other vanquished non-Republicans in the contest, specifically Democrat state Sen. Greg Tarver.

WINNER: Local black elected Democrats other than Tarver allies. In politics in Shreveport’s black community, Tarver is the last of the pioneers and over the years increasingly has polarized this arena. While leftist at its foundation and built upon the idea of black empowerment, Tarver has embraced the system rather than trying to reshape it – he’s not woke by any stretch of the imagination – utilizing his power and skills to make gains for the black community as he sees it.

Over time, a majority of black elected city and parish officials in the have swung away from alliances with him, because they take a more militantly ideologically stance and/or because they prefer not to hitch their fortunes to his constellation. A Tarver win would have put them on the outside of city governance with little influence in it, but with his defeat they can cooperate selectively with the Arceneaux administration while shunting Tarver and his allies to the background.

WINNER: Democrat state Rep. Cedric Glover. Among these Tarver antagonists in the black political community, no one won bigger through his defeat than did Glover. They often clashed while Glover helmed Shreveport, and he famously endorsed Arceneaux. Assuming he wins reelection next year, Glover now becomes indisputably the most influential black politician in Shreveport and powerbroker between the city and Legislature for minority interests.

WINNER: Democrat Councilor-elect Gary Brooks. The final City Council lineup will have two white Republicans, four black Democrats, and white Democrat Brooks, who defeated a Tarver ally. That means Arceneaux can’t provide much policy direction that differs from what black Democrats, the majority, on the Council want. But he does have a veto power to prevent that bloc from straying too far from what he does want – if he can enforce it with Brooks’ assistance. This puts the rookie in a powerful bargaining position.

WINNER: Gerrymandering. The Council turned out this way because five of its districts were drawn with a majority of blacks in their electorates, even as population numbers in the city suggested only four out of every seven residents is black. Further, it would not have been difficult using general principles of reapportionment to draw an additional white-plurality district. As it was, Brooks won one of the black-majority swing district and black Democrat Councilor Alan Jackson, a Tarver ally, almost lost the other that could have been drawn with a white plurality. That would have harkened the city back to 1994-98, with a GOP mayor, three Republican councilors, and three black Democrats on the Council, joined by a white Democrat. Instead, gerrymandering to favor Democrats saved the day for the party’s achieving a supermajority.

LOSER: Local Republicans, sort of. But they won the mayor’s race! And in doing so performed best since 1994, after a string of poor results from 1998-2018, excluding 2006. But failing to knock off Jackson, in admittedly an uphill battle, leaves Arceneaux completely at the mercy of Council Democrats. And from the moment of his inauguration, Arceneaux is an underdog for reelection with no shortage of black Democrats waiting in the wings to challenge him who thought they might have to cool their heels an extra four years. For example, if an invigorated Glover wanted to stage a comeback, 2026 now seems primed.

Plus, Arceneaux now has to tackle the most-ignored biggest issue of the campaign about which the candidates hardly spoke, because it is so intractable: where will the city come up with several hundred extra million dollars to satisfy the consent decree over its water and sewerage shortcomings? It’s supposed to be wrapped up before the end of his term and, unless he pulls off a miracle, whatever he does will be met with heavy criticism from one quarter or another that makes reelection even more difficult.

LOSER: GOP state Sen. Barrow Peacock. There is no single bigger winner or loser besides the candidates than Peacock, who was the only local elected Republican to endorse Tarver and did so early. Local GOP elites weren’t thrilled by this, and while a Tarver win might have extended Peacock’s political career well beyond the end of his last term in the Senate next year, he’s now largely finished politically with next to no leverage with Arceneaux and party activists suspicious of him from here on out.

LOSER: State Democrats. Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards took it on the chin, with his endorsement of Tarver obviously carrying little weight, demonstrating a stunning inability to exert influence. Even as Republican former Gov. Bobby Jindal had difficulties with his endorsed candidates winning, his losses came in intraparty matchups. Edwards’ failure to push across the finish line a black Democrat in a majority-black electorate against a white Republican speaks volumes. Joining him are Tarver allies Democrat state Reps. Sam Jenkins and Tammy Phelps, who now take backseats to Glover in area influence.

LOSER: Race card dealers. Jenkins, among others, exhorted a vote for Tarver as one that would secure black interests. That appeal fell flat for at least enough of the black electorate for Arceneaux to win and comfortably. That doesn’t so much mean an unexpected emergence of post-racial politics, even if banished Democrat Mayor Adrian Perkins drew decently in largely white-majority precincts in 2018, as it does black votes of convenience for Arceneaux, but it is refreshing that at least some in the black electorate consider factors beyond race – and party – in their voting decisions, against type in mayoral elections since the city electorate became black majority just after dawning of the 21^st century.

LOSER: Prognosticators who thought the election would resemble the city’s 2006 contest rather than Monroe’s 2020 one. Guilty, in underestimating antipathy towards Tarver in the black community that eroded voting solidarity. Let’s see who else has the fortitude to admit it.