The Republican is entering his
third year as a legislator, and during that period he scored last year 70 and
his initial year 85 on the Louisiana
Legislature Log’s ideology/reform index, where higher scores indicate more
fealty to a conservative/reformist agenda. This averages out as among the
highest in this period. But with just two years as an elected official, a just
opened federal campaign account and his state equivalent having fewer than
$5,000 as this year began, the obvious question to ask is why he’s running if
he thinks he can win.
With Rep. Bill Cassidy already in the contest, and
at last count his having about $3.5 million in the bank, Hollis must know that
he stands to draw nothing close to that in 10 months as an alternative GOP
contender – and also be able to compete for money against incumbent Democrat
Sen. Mary Landrieu as well. Hollis
isn’t hurting as far as family wealth goes, but he must know that he would have
to commit likely millions of his own resources into the campaign to be
competitive.
And even if he cobbled together
those resources it’s a longshot, because it’s not like there’s policy space
Hollis can present himself to voters in which has yet to be filled. Cassidy’s
American Conservative Union lifetime
voting score through 2012 places him as more conservative that the typical
Republican representative. So conservatives are really going to vote for a guy with
little track record who with difficulty could claim he’s more to the right than
someone else who’s served five years at the national level, who’s got the
resources to compete against an experienced incumbent, and who’s better than almost
any national GOP candidate in this cycle in experience to exploit credibly Landrieu’s
gaping vulnerability courtesy of the self-immolating Patient Protection and
Affordable Care Act? He might be as every bit conservative as Cassidy, perhaps
even more, but those who potentially would donate or assist in campaigning for
him surely don’t see him as nearly electable and as essentially interchangeable
on the issues with Cassidy, so there’s no incentive for them to back him.
So if there are some political elites
or consultants out there telling him he has any realistic chance, he’s getting
bad advice. However, getting in possibly relates to a desire stemming from
other ambitions. Yet if he thinks this would raise his profile for a state
Senate run in 2015, he would be up against an incumbent expected to run, or if
for statewide office those look like they either will have plenty of
competition or incumbents who can win (the only
one who looks vulnerable at this point, Atty. Gen. Buddy
Caldwell, in in a position to which Hollis doesn’t have the required law
degree and practice). Rep. Steve
Scalise looks as if he can keep his seat in the U.S. House as long as he
likes. If this is a bid to raise his profile, it would be an odd way if one
sought a slot on either the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education or the
Public Service Commission, and way overkill if you eyed a local elected
position.
Again given clarity in assessing
his situation, discounting any realistic chance to win given the costs and
dynamics and the ineffectiveness of this strategy to promote future ambitions,
we’re left with ego to explain this move. He wouldn’t be the first to jump in
this race suffering from a combination of
delusion in electability and of desire to publicize himself, if this is the
case.
ReplyDeleteAMEN!