Big GOP early vote gains may flip EBR leader

The uptick in early voting by Republicans nationally matters even in Louisiana, where Republican former Pres. Donald Trump should win handily.

Reflecting the trend nationally, more Republicans voted in Louisiana during the early voting period (plus absentee ballots received through its end) with overall turnout number a bit down from 2020, where voting outside of election day was encouraged in light of the ongoing Wuhan coronavirus pandemic. In 2020, over 986,000 registrants had voted a week prior to the election, of which almost 436,000 were Democrats and almost 368,000 were Republicans, while this year turnout was off to over 961,000 or a drop of about 2.5 percent, of which almost 345,000 were Democrats and nearly 431,000 were Republicans.

The near-reversal in these figures might send some uncomfortable signals to Democrats. With early voting, it’s never known until after the fact whether it reflects fairly faithfully the proportions of the electorate that turn out on election day or if some kind of substitution effect is occurring where for one demographic group as compared to another its members who would have voted on election day instead turn out early, or delay turning out, with the overall proportions when all votes are counted following historical norms.

But there’s reason to believe the higher GOP trend presages something like the same on election day, in that it is occurring broadly coast to coast. That also for Louisiana specifically weakens the notion that the partisan difference is as a result of party-switching from Democrat to Republican that has been a steady feature in Louisiana for decades, as back in 2020 there were about 124,000 more Democrats and around 87,000 fewer Republicans than seen in 2024. Indeed, the drop in early voting number is barely more proportionally than the drop in the overall electorate, down around 72,000 as a result of population losses accelerating in the second term of Democrat former Gov. John Bel Edwards.

Another sign that it’s likely more trend and less substitution is turnout by race. 49,000 fewer blacks showed up as opposed to 28,000 more whites. Typically, blacks have been more likely to vote early.

If in fact these numbers denote disproportionate Republican turnout – they were 25 percent higher than Democrat numbers in an overall electorate where Democrats are 8.5 percent higher – and we reasonably can expect few will defect from GOP candidates (indeed, Democrats will have a higher defection rate because the blanket primary system doesn’t penalize, at least until 2026, keeping the same registration even if years ago someone began voting consistently for the other major party candidates, as a greater proportion of Democrats have done), this should impact the two major contests on the ballot this fall parts of the state: the Public Service Commission District 2 and East Baton Rouge Parish mayor-president contests.

The fantasy for this fall among Democrats at least to slow the long and steady decline in election victories in the state is for the EBR chief executive’s office to be retained by the party, either in the form of incumbent Sharon Weston Broome or by former state Rep. Ted James, and to pull off a major upset in the PSC race by having rookie Nick Laborde somehow defeat GOP state Sen. Jean-Paul Coussan and Republican former state Sen. Julie Quinn. These results bank upon turnout in a fashion that eliminates Republican educator Sid Edwards, the GOP frontrunner, in the EBR contest and puts Laborde into the PSC runoff, and then for the runoff internecine battling in EBR, a major component of District 2, stimulates Democrats into turning out while Republicans sit it out disproportionately and somehow this resonates to vault Laborde past a Republican.

It's quite the dream, but the early voting statistics threaten to turn it into a nightmare. If Republicans turn out disproportionately, Edwards likely would make a runoff against Broome or James with a real chance of winning in December. And the same dynamic might mean even as the default Democrat in the PSC race, Laborde gets aced out by both Republicans, and that internecine battle spills over into helping Edwards win.

The numbers in key parishes show this may happen. Most of EBR lies in District 2, and other large parishes in it are Lafayette, Lafourche, and Terrebonne. In 2020, the ratio of Democrats to Republicans in early voting was 1.6 in EBR, 0.9 in Lafayette, 0.7 in Lafourche, and 0.6 in Terrebonne. In 2024, they were, respectively, 1.2, 0.5, 0.4, and 0.4. In EBR, about a thousand fewer whites showed up early, but about 4,000 fewer blacks did as well.

If replicated on Nov. 5, Democrats certainly will find themselves continuing to look in from the outside for the PSC seat but also in big trouble in holding on to the EBR top spot. In a few days, we’ll know whether the early voting results were this canary in a coal mine.