Republican Rep. Steve Scalise’s moment may have arrived with the ouster of GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the U.S. of Representatives.
Hours ago, the House voted to remove McCarthy as speaker at the behest of Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz. He and seven other Republicans joined all Democrats to succeed, which as Republicans had only a five-member majority meant only the second vote ever to vacate worked.
That parliamentary move existed only because McCarthy’s retained the post tenuously. At the beginning of the year, after 15 rounds of inconclusive voting for its holder, as part of an agreement to win enough votes McCarthy accepted being restored into the rules this privileged maneuver that allowed any single member to ask this. Consistent House conservatives, who held up his victory, felt this gave them leverage in case McCarthy didn’t adhere to other aspects of the agreement that would ensure conservative input into governing the chamber.
One such grievance came as part of the budgeting process, where the conservative bloc wanted separate votes on the dozen different appropriations bills due Sep. 30, which would give them a chance to argue for, if not induce, spending cuts. That process never took a serious turn as instead McCarthy proffered a continuing resolution that would be standstill spending for 45 days, which passed Oct. 2 with almost half of Republicans in opposition.
As provided by a rules change shortly after 9/11/2001, a secret speaker pro tempore that McCarthy named upon his re-ascension to the post, GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry, as revealed now takes control until a new speaker is selected in the indefinite future, which is the only order of business under usual circumstances until then. It could be McCarthy, which the rules don’t prohibit.
But almost certainly it will be somebody else, now that at least several of the GOP caucus seem to think the trust damage is irreparable. And that person could be Scalise, for several reasons.
Scalise, the Majority Leader, naturally is a McCarthy loyalist in leadership for several years despite overtures in the past that he should supplant McCarthy. He didn’t take the bait that odds are would have propelled him into the speakership, demonstrating fidelity that would impress all in the caucus, including those jilted who would have backed him against McCarthy. Loyal to the end, he defended McCarthy prior to the vote.
Scalise also is well-regarded among the conservatives in the chamber who were the most suspicious of McCarthy, with an impressive American Conservative Union lifetime voting score of 91 (100 having a perfect conservative record), or 67th among Republicans and well above the House GOP average of 80 while McCarthy’s was only 84. (Gaetz, for his part, at 92 was just a few places higher than Scalise.)
Finally, Scalise has a compelling personal story, having survived an assassination attempt by a leftist terrorist that has left him with physically disabling injuries. And already the number two guy makes him a natural choice.
Perhaps his only reservation will be the cancer scare he recently received, which he says he’s well on the way to recovery, with early detection giving him great odds for that. Yet the uncertainty and physical taxation, compounded with his previous injuries, may dissuade him from taking on additional duties and the moment will pass him by.
And from making history as the first speaker from Louisiana, as well as the first person with a disability to assume the post. Other than that issue, he should be the clear leader for the post, which if it happens will be in several days as McCarthy is given time to ascertain he cannot get the job back and for Scalise to sort out whether he’s up to the task.
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