So, Republican state Rep. Richard Nelson pulled the plug on his gubernatorial candidacy. It changes little that GOP Atty. Gen. Jeff Landry and Democrat former cabinet member Shawn Wilson are heading to runoff, with Landry having a decisive advantage.
Nelson, whose campaign best fits a libertarian mold, never cracked two percent in polling, with the latest survey for Gray Media television stations in Louisiana not even including him in its summary of voter preferences that occurred a few days before he announced his withdrawal. Given the state’s political culture with a history of liberal populism that emphasized social conservatism and liberal economics, reversing the pair doesn’t fit well.
Low on funds, Nelson recognized the obvious and went out endorsing Landry. That seems odd on the surface, for why run against the front runner if you ultimately think he’s better than all other challengers? It may have been for strategic purposes, with Nelson now out of electoral politics and perhaps searching for a way to stay in governance with an appointment and Landry the likely one to do the appointing come next year.
Yet Nelson, having cultivated a reputation as an ideas guy especially on fiscal issues, wouldn’t be a good fit with an administrative post. Perhaps the best he could hope for by shilling for Landry is a high-profile board appointment or work in the Governor’s Office.
Not that his endorsement has any real impact. He had little support and likely those few supporters, who would have to have some interest in policy to have lighted on him likely attracted by his fiscal ideas yet not turned off by his less conservative if not outright liberal and even far left notions on social issues, would be too keen on Landry’s rock-ribbed social conservatism. The majority probably will roll off or pick another candidate rather than slide on over to Landry’s column.
Also muting any impact of Nelson’s withdrawal – the first withdrawal of any “major” (if he could be called such with his limited support) candidate at qualifying or later in 28 years – is his name will remain on the ballot as mail voting ballots already have gone out. He’ll pick up a smattering of casual voters denied to active candidates.
Next heading to campaign dollar bankruptcy appears to be Republican state Sen. Sharon Hewitt, who by that poll, which gave Landry 40 percent and Wilson 24 percent, drew two percent and financially is on fumes. If she departs perhaps after a last-gasp Louisiana Public Broadcasting forum next week, that has led to speculation that Landry could close out the contest without a runoff. Indeed, when GOP former Gov. Bobby Jindal triumphed that way in 2007, in August he had just 38 percent of the vote without any serious Republican opposition diluting his vote gathering.
However, factors besides withdrawn names remaining on the ballot and other major GOP contenders there also make this unlikely. Wilson, because he is black, will draw at a bare minimum a quarter of the vote, and the stealth white Democrat candidate independent trial lawyer Hunter Lundy could crack double digits (in a small part due to a few voters confusing him with Landry’s name). That leaves only a quarter of the vote up for grabs, of which presently 18 percent is undecided, but is more like 12 percent under the scenario presented. Even though polling at this point tries to include only voters they deem likely or somewhat likely to vote Oct. 14, the reality is at this date probably half who call themselves undecided will roll off, unwilling to admit they don’t intend to vote. That leaves Landry a few points short.
Even if everything goes right – say another couple of Republicans drop out to leave one to consolidate whatever GOP anti-Landry support there is while leaving some voters to make their way over to his fold, Lundy’s backwoods liberal populism grates, and Wilson has trouble firing up black and white woke voters – it still seems less than even money that Landry can hit 50 percent plus one. Still, remarkably, it has reached the realm of possibility for discussion, much to the consternation, if not panic in looking for anybody but Landry to win, of the extremist left media.
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