Lundy rises in poll, but no chance to win

Three words answer the question as to whether independent Hunter Lundy has a chance to win the Louisiana governor’s race: no, no, and no.

Lundy’s name showed up in third place with 7 percent among the contenders in the latest independent poll released by a set of media outlets, although in one completed days before that for another set of outlets he came in sixth at 3 percent. In both instances, Republican Atty. Gen. Jeff Landry led the way with over 35 percent while Democrat former cabinet member Shawn Wilson took home about a quarter of the vote intention.

Speculation has swirled whether one of four other quality Republicans could begin to consolidate undecided votes, if not pick off voters from other candidates, to challenge for a runoff spot. The thinking was, even as the GOP candidates other than Landry differed from him much more in style than in issue preferences, that voters not on the left of the ideological spectrum who weren’t fans of Landry could find a home with another Republican.

But why not Lundy, who contrasts with a different label and also could attract liberal voters not impressed with Wilson? Especially the latest poll indicates he could sneak in, and he is funded better than some of his GOP competitors so he has resources, although much of what he has raised has come from his own pockets.

Further, Louisiana’s political culture especially discounts partisanship. Historically, personal qualities of candidates have played an outsized role in elections and the blanket primary electoral system where all candidates regardless of party label run together deemphasizes parties, so a label means less in its elections than anywhere else in the country. And, the latest statistics of registrants reveals about 80,000 state voters called themselves “independent,” according to the co-founder of the state’s recognized Independent Party, leaving a critical mass attractable to the label.

That means something, since most registrants who care little about politics and likely registered connected to another activity such as obtaining a driver’s license will not indicate any party. “Independents” presumably give some thought to politics and choose deliberately that label because both major parties on the issues disenchant them.

Still, none of this points to Lundy going anywhere. Regardless of the weakness of the major parties in the state, party labels serve as useful heuristics to many voters and may be the only thought they give to choosing a candidate. Few casual voters will have any conception of what an “Independent” candidate stands for and thus will limit their choice between major party contestants.

And for those who do give more thought to their selections, many will be turned off by what little they can find out about Lundy. His campaign web site doesn’t give away much, but it reveals that, if he had his way, he would raise taxes by cancelling the expiration of the 0.45 percent temporary sales tax due to roll off in 2025 and has no real desire to rein in state government spending. Indeed, he favors dramatically increasing spending on school salaries while, using code language, weakening standards and accountability. Additionally, he highlights opposition to abortion, which does align with the state’s center-right majority.

In other words, Lundy appeals to the ever-diminishing coterie of white, socially conservative Democrats who have seen their influence continually wane within the party because they less ambitiously want to reorder society than the black and woke elites that by and large have wrested control of the party from them. That is reflected in the older of the two recent surveys which shows that about half of his support comes from registrants not affiliated with the major parties but most of the rest coming from Democrats, and with slightly less than half of his support coming from whites.

In the field, Lundy occupies a shrinking space for which Republican state Rep. Richard Nelson also jockeys but from the other end, as a libertarian advocating economic conservatism but social liberalism. That and his labelling aren’t nearly enough to make him a serious threat to break the dominance of Wilson and Landry (and probably a few poll respondents say they will vote for Lundy because they are confusing him with Landry). He will have trouble cracking double digits on election day, much less make it into a runoff.