Another test ahead for resurrecting Nagin's political career

Despite inauspicious moments initially after Hurricane Katrina, is it possible that, left for dead politically, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin can resurrect his political career?

While Nagin bungled the evacuation of New Orleans before the hurricane, and the imposition of law and order and coordination of assistance immediately after, since the rescue portion of the crisis has passed he has staged a comeback. He seems to have mended fences with the federal government and it can be argued that he is on better terms with Pres. George W. Bush than is Gov. Kathleen Blanco. Nagin also has turned on the gladhanding with members of Congress who matter and can claim legitimately to have brought home some reconstruction bacon.

His efforts take place in the shadow of city elections forthcoming by the end of April. Only a couple of months ago, with the opening chapters of his storm response still in mind, pundits believed he had little chance for reelection. But a case can be made that Nagin’s chances have gone from none to competitive.

No other black politician has announced a mayoral run. Also, heavyweights such as Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu seem reluctant to enter the fray (in Landrieu’s case, because possibly he has much bigger fish to fry). If a projected field of conservative Republican and former New Orleans city member Peggy Wilson, liberal Democrat and former member Eddie Sapir, conservative Democrat and Orleans Parish School Board member Jimmy Fahrenholtz, and Nagin materializes, black Democrat Nagin has a pretty decent chance to make it to the general election runoff phase.

But getting any farther may be difficult. Nagin should get a solid majority of the black vote, but not overwhelmingly so. This makes winning difficult in an electorate that probably will end up majority white and those crossover votes simply are not likely to be there against Wilson or Fahrenholtz, given the relatively slow pace of recovery in the eyes of many white voters (if not Nagin’s outright hostility to some) and the fact, fairly or not, that Nagin spends more time in Dallas or shuttling around the country than governing in the city. He probably would have trouble even against Sapir, where the hesitancy of conservative voters to support such a liberal would get cancelled by Sapir’s picking up greater liberal black votes.

Perhaps sensing his electoral fate has brought about the dramatic rise (although anything coming from zero is by definition a “dramatic rise”) in his political effectiveness. Without feeling the need to impress any constituency, Nagin may feel free to do what he thinks best regardless of political consequences since they seem certain anyway.

How Nagin deals with the coming recommendations this week of the Bring New Orleans Back Commission will provide another marker in his post-hurricane career. He may well accept unpopular parts of the proposals such as building moratoriums in certain places after a certain period of time because he thinks them right. This kind of leadership may not get him another four years, but it may be effective at this particular time for New Orleans.