tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post1168452141419803631..comments2024-03-17T08:07:12.695-05:00Comments on Between The Lines: Jindal's budget serves half a loaf, maybe more to comeJeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-68491645093080219142008-03-03T11:24:00.000-06:002008-03-03T11:24:00.000-06:00Good question and really the subject for another p...Good question and really the subject for another post, but in brief here's what I hope happens.<BR/><BR/>There will be a bit of a bump up in economic activity because of ethics reforms and the proposed business tax cuts, but it won't be enough to stimulate the revenue needed to make up these anticipated shortfalls. Some of the additional spending this year is what you would call "workforce development," some of it good, some not so (pay raises for teachers). That also will start to pay off but not soon enough nor large enough to offset projected deficits. Some spending in the special session also will reduce future claims as well but, again, still not enough.<BR/><BR/>So, "restructuring" as you call it or "reprioritizing" as Jindal calls it is going to have to happen. Jindal already apparently is beginning to set that up in health care (although I question that additional nursing home money) and I hope other such efforts will occur. On that point I would disagree that Jindal isn't interested in restructuring, on the face of this budget. The problem is, can he do enough of it to be able to offer tax relief.<BR/><BR/>Acutally, if you look at the projections coming from DOA, they are flatlining the budget more or less over the next couple of years in terms of spending. The problem is, revenue growth is essentially flat, too. (Although, to their credit, their assumptions are admirably conservative -- oil at $58 a barrel, for example, for the fiscal year after this next one.)<BR/><BR/>One thing I have stressed over the past couple of years is that the Blanco budgeting strategy was setting up long-term problems which I'm glad to see now are being addressed but that is going to make tax relief more difficult. And Jindal did not ever promise income tax relief, but said it was a goal he would work towards the reduction or elimination of. So I admit this is an optimistic scenario of mine simply because there are problems of long standing that Jindal has to unwind before we can get tax relief. I'd say it's 50/50 at best this term, but likely if he gets a second term and nothing economically catastrophic happens.Jeff Sadowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-51075207884099632012008-03-03T08:29:00.000-06:002008-03-03T08:29:00.000-06:00I do not understand your conclusion. If this budg...I do not understand your conclusion. If this budget is up 3.6%, it sets a new base line for future budgets. Since most of the recurring budget is labor related (and since we are heading into an inflationary period), these amounts are going to increase in the future. If even only a small amount of the revenue stream disappears due to reduced hurricane recovery spending (and that doesn't even consider possible recessionary dips), how can there ever be room for tax relief without a serious restructing of government - something which Jindal doesn't seem to want?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com