tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post8023469727588379731..comments2024-03-17T08:07:12.695-05:00Comments on Between The Lines: Increasingly hard to argue LA not GOP-majority stateJeff Sadowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-53112401412720317802008-01-03T10:52:00.000-06:002008-01-03T10:52:00.000-06:00Note that I have two examples of pressure Jindal m...Note that I have two examples of pressure Jindal may use, both indirect (reminding legislators of the Blueprint agenda with the threat of going over their heads to the public if need be) and direct (use mainly of his informal powers which includes the line item veto among others -- I didn't spell them out for brevity's sake).<BR/><BR/>You seem to think 2007 may have been a one-time aberration -- a view that is unsupported by recent history, data, and logic. I gave some numbers on Republican electoral success which, by your logic, means there's been a 20-year period of "anti-incumbent" feelings. Odom's defeat is the perfect example of GOP success -- look who's run against him the past, and if we've known he's been corrupt all this time, why wasn't he voted out of office long ago? That he drew a quality opponent this time who defeated him speaks volumes that the tide is running strongly in the GOP's favor. And it certainly seems a testament to GOP strength that quality Democrats got waxed by Jindal, or deferred from running.<BR/><BR/>There are other data, too -- rapidly increasing numbers of GOP registrants that will accelerate because of the new closed primaries for federal elections, continuing increases in locally-elected Republicans, etc.<BR/><BR/>Note that my argument about coattails was more about theory than the math which tended to inflate the winner's totals in legislative districts relative to the governor's race (math also explains in part why Landrieu and Dardenne, facing fewer and weaker opponents, got more votes than Jindal). The concept means nothing in a situation where the two assumptions cited in the post are not met, political scientists long ago concluded.<BR/><BR/>(By way of information ... Jindal has been voting half of his adult life, and even if you asked my political science majors who was elected to what, most could get the governor and few anybody else. The public does far worse.)<BR/><BR/>If you are a Democrat you can't shut your eyes to the major, long-term shift to the GOP that is occuring in Louisiana as it catches up to the rest of the South. Wishing it away won't change that fact.Jeff Sadowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03972004592729833310noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-68884825706718733202008-01-03T00:16:00.000-06:002008-01-03T00:16:00.000-06:00Oh, and the first governor that is a LIFELONG memb...Oh, and the first governor that is a LIFELONG member of the GOP!!!! That's hilarious! How long has he even been able to vote!<BR/><BR/>You're REALLY REALLY reaching and working hard in your continuing efforts to shill for the GOP. I'll grant you that much!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-19694530856693495242008-01-02T23:02:00.000-06:002008-01-02T23:02:00.000-06:00This blog entry answers bad analysis with poor, on...This blog entry answers bad analysis with poor, one-sided analysis. At best, it is wishful thinking.<BR/><BR/>First, the “real issue Jindal can use to corral legislative victories” is the line item veto, not some blueprint. The local guys get reelected when they bring home the pork. The line item veto can strike pork with surgical precision, but the legislative will is more of a blunt instrument. It takes a lot of force (votes) to do any damage.<BR/><BR/>So legislators are always beholden to (or at least afraid of) LA’s governor unless the legislative will is overwhelming enough to crush the governor’s legislative agenda. And that sometimes happens to so-called reform governors. We shall see.<BR/><BR/>You use Bob Odom as proof of the Republicans’ takeover. Please!!!! Bob Odom had more dirt than all of the farmers that supported him. Face it, Odom was seen as a crook. Blanco was seen as incompetent. They are not the paradigm of good Democratic leadership.<BR/><BR/>Your one-eyed analysis ignores that Landrieu strolled back into the Lieutenant Governor’s spot. And the fact that Buddy Caldwell beat Royal Alexander by an almost 2:1 margin.<BR/><BR/>There is an anti-incumbent sentiment in politics today. With more Democrat incumbents, that sentiment ought to affect Dem’s disproportionately. <BR/><BR/>Would Jindal have sailed into the governor’s office so easily had John Breaux decided to run? Probably not. So part of the problem is that the Democrats did not run the right candidate. Part of that problem is that Blanco gummed up the works by not bowing out sooner.<BR/><BR/>Furthermore, there was only one serious GOP contender for governor. There were several serious Democrat contenders. If “the [GOP] has come so far so fast that it could not find enough quality candidates in enough districts,” it would seem that GOP legislative candidates coat tailing Jindal should have drawn similar percentages to Jindal had they really been riding his coat tails. Something in your analysis does not follow.<BR/><BR/>The anti-incumbent sentiment probably affects local races less. First, state reps and senators are elected to bring home the pork. Not only that, but they are subject to less scrutiny. The populace is not as informed about their legislators and local officials. Ask your college classes who the various statewide officials are, and they will likely be able to name them. Ask them who their state reps and senators are, and they will probably have a harder time.<BR/><BR/>If anti-incumbent sentiment affects local races less, that would explain why the Republicans have not made more progress in the legislature.<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>I do not really know whether the GOP will take over LA as you say, but neither do you. The analyst for The Advocate got it right—it could go either way.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214951.post-71934372737551558312008-01-02T16:46:00.000-06:002008-01-02T16:46:00.000-06:00Pretty much every state in the south is trending t...Pretty much every state in the south is trending toward the GOP on the state legislative level except for Arkansas and Alabama.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com