Republican state Sen. Ryan Gatti doesn’t have just recently-released
campaign figures about which to worry. Some past numbers aren’t going to help
his reelection chances in his right-of-center district, either.
Last week, he and principal opponent Republican Robert Mills filed their data
for 30 days prior to the election. Gatti found his $148,000
raised couldn’t match the $192,000
Mills raised; Mills outspent him $142,000 to $111,000; and, most alarmingly, he
had just $40,000 in the bank for the stretch run while Mills sat on $174,000.
Worse for him, Gatti went deep into his own
pockets to squeak out a win in his previous election. Making dozens of loans to
himself, many after the election’s conclusion, at the end of 2018
he had loaned himself almost $422,000 and had fewer than $75,000 left in his campaign
account – perhaps explaining why he fought
so hard from his Senate perch to kill legislation that not only almost
certainly would have decreased vehicle insurance rates but also would have made
his personal injury attorney practice less lucrative. He kicked in another
$8,000 or so in 2019.
Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University Shreveport. If you're an elected official, political operative or anyone else upset at his views, don't go bothering LSUS or LSU System officials about that because these are his own views solely. This publishes five days weekly with the exception of 7 holidays. Also check out his Louisiana Legislature Log especially during legislative sessions (in "Louisiana Politics Blog Roll" below).
12.9.19
More polls, but not more LA gov race certainty
Two more polls about the Louisiana governor’s race continue
to offer little in the way of clarity about how the contest will pan out.
Last month came the second iteration of a Market Research Insights poll whose initial effort varied considerably from almost all other polling. It forecast an incumbent Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards reelection without having to go to a runoff, although with less certainty than the previous incarnation.
The first poll’s divergent results came in large part due to a sampling frame that likely disproportionately drew from Edwards supporters. It’s possible that the pollster’s guess in this regard could turn out correct on Oct. 12, but runs against the field of play. The second such poll didn’t have all of its statistics made public, but it’s almost certain it used the same sampling frame and therefore has the same validity issue.
Last month came the second iteration of a Market Research Insights poll whose initial effort varied considerably from almost all other polling. It forecast an incumbent Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards reelection without having to go to a runoff, although with less certainty than the previous incarnation.
The first poll’s divergent results came in large part due to a sampling frame that likely disproportionately drew from Edwards supporters. It’s possible that the pollster’s guess in this regard could turn out correct on Oct. 12, but runs against the field of play. The second such poll didn’t have all of its statistics made public, but it’s almost certain it used the same sampling frame and therefore has the same validity issue.
11.9.19
LA has advantage over others stuck on stupid
If you’re Louisiana, you come out a winner when
other states or their local governments go off the deep end.
Dozens of cities in leftist states such as California, Washington, and Massachusetts are studying proposals to ban or limit the use of natural gas in commercial and residential buildings. Berkeley, CA, already has done this for new construction. Activists backing this idea argue that the electric grid has picked up more renewably powered sources while gas can leak and allegedly contribute to climate change.
At first, this statist boycott might seem to hurt Louisiana. Since the fracking revolution that launched the state into a battle with Oklahoma and Alaska for third-most amount of natural gas produced annually, prices generally have hovered in the $10-15 per thousand cubic feet range for residential and settled in around $8 for commercial use, netting some nice returns for state producers. Better, with new facilities opening beginning in 2016 and still expanding, the state has exploded from nothing into trailing only Texas in gas exportation.
Dozens of cities in leftist states such as California, Washington, and Massachusetts are studying proposals to ban or limit the use of natural gas in commercial and residential buildings. Berkeley, CA, already has done this for new construction. Activists backing this idea argue that the electric grid has picked up more renewably powered sources while gas can leak and allegedly contribute to climate change.
At first, this statist boycott might seem to hurt Louisiana. Since the fracking revolution that launched the state into a battle with Oklahoma and Alaska for third-most amount of natural gas produced annually, prices generally have hovered in the $10-15 per thousand cubic feet range for residential and settled in around $8 for commercial use, netting some nice returns for state producers. Better, with new facilities opening beginning in 2016 and still expanding, the state has exploded from nothing into trailing only Texas in gas exportation.
10.9.19
Speaking truth to power on Medicaid charade
Republican Rep. Ralph Abraham made a good start
in his critique
of Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards’
expansion of Medicaid, but perhaps didn’t go far enough in explicating the
mendacity and stupidity behind that ill-fated decision.
Last week Abraham, who faces off against Edwards for governor next month, held a news conference where he criticized Edwards for his decision to expand Medicaid and they way he did it. Abraham pointed out that the amount of state money going to it continues to increase rapidly, which Edwards refuses to acknowledge, and that Edwards has a history of lackadaisical attention to efficient management to root out waste identified by the Legislative Auditor as likely running into the hundreds of millions of dollars.
Abraham could have added that Edwards has tried to inflate Medicaid rolls intentionally. The incumbent planned all along to stuff as many people as possible onto Medicaid rolls and then use that freebie as a campaign talking point to buy reelection votes. He deliberately dismantled more stringent eligibility standards implemented late in his predecessor’s term that would have reduced fraudulent payouts. Only after the Auditor began scrutinizing the level of waste did the Department of Health expedite a new verification system into operation. Just the initial purge of ineligible enrollees lopped off around 6 percent of the total, which in fiscal year 2018 terms meant the state wasted $180 million.
Last week Abraham, who faces off against Edwards for governor next month, held a news conference where he criticized Edwards for his decision to expand Medicaid and they way he did it. Abraham pointed out that the amount of state money going to it continues to increase rapidly, which Edwards refuses to acknowledge, and that Edwards has a history of lackadaisical attention to efficient management to root out waste identified by the Legislative Auditor as likely running into the hundreds of millions of dollars.
Abraham could have added that Edwards has tried to inflate Medicaid rolls intentionally. The incumbent planned all along to stuff as many people as possible onto Medicaid rolls and then use that freebie as a campaign talking point to buy reelection votes. He deliberately dismantled more stringent eligibility standards implemented late in his predecessor’s term that would have reduced fraudulent payouts. Only after the Auditor began scrutinizing the level of waste did the Department of Health expedite a new verification system into operation. Just the initial purge of ineligible enrollees lopped off around 6 percent of the total, which in fiscal year 2018 terms meant the state wasted $180 million.
9.9.19
Caddo can expand youth jail without tax hike
Just in time to create a campaign issue comes a
warning from the Caddo Parish Juvenile Court.
Democrat Juvenile Judge Paul Young sounded the alarm to local media about the impact of criminal justice changes over a year ago. When taking affect Mar. 1, 17-year-olds accused of nonviolent crimes who previously would have gone through the adult system instead went into the juvenile system.
In Caddo Parish, one of just a few parishes – all with large populations – with its own dedicated family or juvenile court, this means increased processing into the Caddo Parish Juvenile Detention Center. And last week for the first time it went over capacity, with Young announcing as a result he freed a juvenile he ordinarily would have had held.
Democrat Juvenile Judge Paul Young sounded the alarm to local media about the impact of criminal justice changes over a year ago. When taking affect Mar. 1, 17-year-olds accused of nonviolent crimes who previously would have gone through the adult system instead went into the juvenile system.
In Caddo Parish, one of just a few parishes – all with large populations – with its own dedicated family or juvenile court, this means increased processing into the Caddo Parish Juvenile Detention Center. And last week for the first time it went over capacity, with Young announcing as a result he freed a juvenile he ordinarily would have had held.
8.9.19
Abraham gets it over Rispone, barely
If you’re fed up with Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards, a candidate forum
last week gave you an answer to replace him as Louisiana’s top executive:
Republican Rep. Ralph Abraham.
It’s not that Republican businessman Eddie Rispone would be a bad choice at all; he certainly tops Edwards convincingly on a wide range of policy issues. It’s just that Abraham does a bit better on the whole on issues where he and Rispone diverge.
The forum, hosted by Baton Rouge area women’s Republican clubs, provided the first public opportunity after qualifying for the Oct. 12 election for the GOP candidates to make a distinction between themselves in person. With a runoff almost certain and the advancing Republican at least an even-money bet to win, the choice between the two selects the most likely person to become governor next year.
It’s not that Republican businessman Eddie Rispone would be a bad choice at all; he certainly tops Edwards convincingly on a wide range of policy issues. It’s just that Abraham does a bit better on the whole on issues where he and Rispone diverge.
The forum, hosted by Baton Rouge area women’s Republican clubs, provided the first public opportunity after qualifying for the Oct. 12 election for the GOP candidates to make a distinction between themselves in person. With a runoff almost certain and the advancing Republican at least an even-money bet to win, the choice between the two selects the most likely person to become governor next year.