Earlier this week, Louisiana’s
Department of Health and Hospitals issued an updated report
concerning eligibility expansion under the Patient Protection and Affordable
Care Act (“Obamacare”). Utilized changed standards over the past three years in
the analysis, while more optimistic than the report issued then, it still
points to the wisdom of rejection of expansion.
According to it, in the scenario
most closely matching the existing policy environment, the state is expected to
spend from $197 million to $367 million less over that decade. In another scenario,
which depends upon a very unrealistic rise in provider rates of 90-100 percent,
costs were $1.7 billion greater over the decade. However, importantly any “savings”
realized occur only in the first six years of the continued reimbursement rate
and from thereon out the state pays increasingly more.
Besides a few procedural
rulings that have changed since the law’s passage and its imperfectly reasoned reaffirmation
by the U.S. Supreme Court, the most prominent factor in adjusting the estimates
ironically has been the state’s implementation of its Bayou Health plan, a
premium support plan with a substantial managed capitation program for those currently
eligible for Medicaid that saved the state about $136 million (about 10.88
cents per enrollee) in its initial year of operation. In essence, it has made
it cheaper to enroll incremental members into Medicaid and without that, given
the projected number of enrollees under expansion in the realistic scenario
(577,000) compared to existing enrollments (1.25 million), another $63 million
annually would be saved or almost twice the optimistic realistic scenario.